Valuing the benefits of reducing firearm violence in the United States.
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2025-01
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Abstract
Justifying a proposed government regulation intended to reduce firearm violence requires a conceptually sound estimate of the monetized value of that impact and how that value is distributed across the population. Some previous estimates do not serve as a valid basis for policy evaluation or are out of date. A nationally representative survey was conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research in August 2022 (n = 660). The authors designed and added a series of contingent-valuation items to the questionnaire. Double-bounded estimates of willingness-to-pay (WTP) were derived from a regression analysis of responses regarding voting on a hypothetical referendum on a state-wide package of measures designed to reduce gun violence at specified cost to taxpayers. Average WTP for a reduction of 20% in the state rate of gun violence was $744 per household (IQR:$668-$928), implying a national total of $97.6 billion. Household WTP was positively associated with household income, the respondent's assessment of the seriousness of gun violence in their community and the subjective likelihood that they would become a victim of gun violence. A variety of tests support the claim that this application of the contingent-valuation method provided valid results. WTP is the recognized basis for assessing the value of proposed federal regulations. The estimated WTP for reducing gun violence is about twice as high as a recent cost-of-injury estimate and provides a much different picture of the incidence of costs by income and demographic characteristics.
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Cook, Philip J, Marc Jeuland and Jens Ludwig (2025). Valuing the benefits of reducing firearm violence in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 122(4). p. e2419864122. 10.1073/pnas.2419864122 Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/32018.
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Philip J. Cook
Philip J. Cook is ITT/Sanford Professor Emeritus of Public Policy and Professor Emeritus of Economics at Duke University. He served as director and chair of Duke’s Sanford Institute of Public Policy from 1985-89, and again from 1997-99. Cook is an honorary Fellow in the American Society of Criminology. In 2001 he was elected to membership in the National Academy of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.
Cook joined the Duke faculty in 1973 after earning his PhD from the University of California, Berkeley. He has served as consultant to the U.S. Department of Justice (Criminal Division) and to the U.S. Department of Treasury (Enforcement Division). He has served in a variety of capacities with the National Academy of Sciences, including membership on expert panels dealing with alcohol-abuse prevention, violence, school shootings, underage drinking, the deterrent effect of the death penalty, and proactive policing. He served as vice chair of the National Research Council’s Committee on Law and Justice.
Cook's primary focus at the moment is the economics of crime. He is co-director of the NBER Work Group on the Economics of Crime, and co-editor of a NBER volume on crime prevention. He also has ongoing projects on education policy and academic performance, with recent publications on starting age for public schools, and on how lead exposure affects academic performance and delinquency.
Over much of his career, one strand of Cook’s research concerns the prevention of alcohol-related problems through restrictions on alcohol availability. An early article was the first to demonstrate persuasively that alcohol taxes have a direct effect on the death rate of heavy drinkers, and subsequent research demonstrated the moderate efficacy of minimum-purchase-age laws in preventing fatal crashes. Together with Michael J. Moore, he focused on the effects of beer taxes on youthful drinking and the consequences thereof, finding that more restrictive policies result in lower rates of abuse, higher college graduation rates and lower crime rates. His book on the subject is Paying the Tab: The Costs and Benefits of Alcohol Control, (Princeton University Press, 2007; 2016 in paper).
A second strand has concerned the costs and consequences of the widespread availability of guns, and what might be done about it. His book (with Jens Ludwig), Gun Violence: The Real Costs (Oxford University Press, 2000), develops and applies a framework for assessing costs that is grounded in economic theory and is quite at odds with the traditional “Cost of Injury” framework. His book with Kristin A. Goss, The Gun Debate (Oxford University Press 2014, 2020) is intended for a general audience seeking an objective assessment of the myriad relevant issues. He is currently heading up an evaluation of the Chicago Police Department's Area Technology Centers, together with a team from the University of Chicago Crime Lab.
Cook has also co-authored two other books: with Charles Clotfelter on state lotteries (Selling Hope: State Lotteries in America, Harvard University Press, 1989), and with Robert H. Frank on the causes and consequences of the growing inequality of earnings (The Winner-Take-All Society, The Free Press, 1995). The Winner-Take-All Society was named a “Notable Book of the Year, 1995” by the New York Times Book Review. It has been translated into Japanese, Chinese, Portuguese, Polish, and Korean.
Marc A. Jeuland
Marc Jeuland is a Professor in the Sanford School of Public Policy, with a joint appointment in the Duke Global Health Institute. His research interests include nonmarket valuation, water and sanitation, environmental health, energy poverty and transitions, trans-boundary water resource planning and management, and the impacts and economics of climate change.
Jeuland's recent research includes work to understand the economic implications of climate change for water resources projects on transboundary river systems, a range of primary data collection projects related to analysis of adoption of environmental health improving technology, and analysis of the costs and benefits of environmental health interventions in developing countries. He has conducted multiple field experiments on issues such as: the role of water quality information in affecting household water and hygiene behaviors; the demand for, and impacts of cleaner cookstoves on household well-being; the long-term sustainability and effects of rural sanitation and water supply projects. He has also collected data on preferences for a range of environmental health improvements including cholera vaccines, household water treatment technologies and improved cookstoves. In the energy and development domain, he is currently working on several projects with the Energy Access Project at Duke, and is a co-founder of the Sustainable Energy Transitions Initiative (SETI), along with Professor Subhrendu Pattanayak and scholars from Chile, China and Ethiopia. His energy portfolio includes work related to evaluation of cleaner cooking interventions, measuring energy access and reliability, and reviews of the drivers and impacts literature related to energy.
Jeuland has worked in the past with the World Bank, USAID, the Millennium Challenge Corporation, UNICEF, and many field-based NGOs and community-based implementing organizations.
Prior to his graduate studies and work with the World Bank, Jeuland was a Peace Corps volunteer in Mali, West Africa, where he designed and monitored construction of a pilot wastewater treatment system and trained management personnel at the plant’s managing firm.
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