Projecting the number of older singaporeans with activity of daily living limitations requiring human assistance through 2030.
Abstract
Introduction
In the context of rapid population ageing and the increase in number of activity of daily living (ADL) limitations with age, the number of older persons requiring human assistance in Singapore is likely to grow. To promote informed planning for the needs of these elderly, we project the number of resident Singaporeans 60 years of age and older with 1 or more ADL limitations requiring human assistance through 2030.Materials and methods
The proportion of community-dwelling older adults with ADL limitations requiring human assistance, stratified by gender and age group, was calculated utilising a recent nationally-representative survey of older Singaporeans. The proportion of older adults in nursing homes with ADL limitations was estimated based on available literature. Together, these prevalence estimates were applied to a simulation of the future population of older adults in Singapore to derive an estimate of the number of individuals with ADL limitations requiring human assistance through 2030.Results
By 2030, the number of resident Singaporeans aged 60 years or older with 1 or more ADL limitations requiring human assistance is projected to be 82,968 persons (7% of the total population aged 60 years or older). Of this number, 38,809 (47%) are estimated to have 1 or 2 ADL limitations, and 44,159 (53%) are estimated to have 3 or more.Conclusion
The number of elderly Singaporeans with activity limitations is expected grow rapidly from 31,738 in 2010 to 82,968 in 2030. Estimates of the number of older individuals with ADL limitations requiring human assistance are of value for policymakers as well as acute and long-term care capacity planners as they seek to meet demand for health and social services in Singapore.Type
Department
Description
Provenance
Citation
Permalink
Collections
Scholars@Duke
Truls Ostbye
Chronic disease epidemiology; obesity; health services research; population health; public health; social medicine; health information systems; health surveys; programme evaluation; clinical trials; aging; nutrition; dementia; Global Health
David Bruce Matchar
My research relates to clinical practice improvement - from the development of clinical policies to their implementation in real world clinical settings. Most recently my major content focus has been cerebrovascular disease. Other major clinical areas in which I work include the range of disabling neurological conditions, cardiovascular disease, and cancer prevention.
Notable features of my work are: (1) reliance on analytic strategies such as meta-analysis, simulation, decision analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis; (2) a balancing of methodological rigor the needs of medical professionals; and (3) dependence on interdisciplinary groups of experts.
This approach is best illustrated by the Stroke Prevention Patient Outcome Research Team (PORT), for which I served as principal investigator. Funded by the AHCPR, the PORT involved 35 investigators at 13 institutions. The Stroke PORT has been highly productive and has led to a stroke prevention project funded as a public/private partnership by the AHCPR and DuPont Pharma, the Managing Anticoagulation Services Trial (MAST). MAST is a practice improvement trial in 6 managed care organizations, focussing on optimizing anticoagulation for individuals with atrial fibrillation.
I serve as consultant in the general area of analytic strategies for clinical policy development, as well as for specific projects related to stroke (e.g., acute stroke treatment, management of atrial fibrillation, and use of carotid endarterectomy.) I have worked with AHCPR (now AHRQ), ACP, AHA, AAN, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, NSA, WHO, and several pharmaceutical companies.
Key Words: clinical policy, disease management, stroke, decision analysis, clinical guidelines
Unless otherwise indicated, scholarly articles published by Duke faculty members are made available here with a CC-BY-NC (Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial) license, as enabled by the Duke Open Access Policy. If you wish to use the materials in ways not already permitted under CC-BY-NC, please consult the copyright owner. Other materials are made available here through the author’s grant of a non-exclusive license to make their work openly accessible.