How Crisis Visibility Conditions Public Opinion Influence on Foreign Policy in Authoritarian Regimes

Abstract

This study examines how crisis visibility influences authoritarian governments’ responsiveness to nationalist public opinion, using China as a case study. While nationalist sentiment can shape foreign policy, governments do not always adjust policies in response. This study argues that visibility determines whether public pressure leads to policy escalation. Using a mixed-method approach, the study analyzes three cases: the 2014 Chinese Oil Rig Incident (low visibility), the 2020-2021 China-India Border Conflict (high visibility), and Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 Taiwan visit (high visibility). Quantitative sentiment analysis of Weibo data shows that negative nationalist sentiment intensified most in high-visibility crises, particularly under nationalist bloggers rather than state media. Qualitative case study analysis reveals that the Chinese government escalated its response in high-visibility crises but maintained restraint in the low-visibility case. Findings suggest that crisis visibility is a stronger predictor of policy shifts than crisis severity or domestic political timing. This has implications for authoritarian crisis management and international diplomacy. Controlling crisis visibility may allow governments to manage nationalist expectations, while foreign actors can use visibility assessments to predict authoritarian responses.