Geographic expansion of Lyme disease in Michigan, 2000-2014

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2017-01-01

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Lantos, Paul M
Tsao, Jean
Nigrovic, Lise E
Auwaerter, Paul G
Fowler, Vance G
Ruffin, Felicia
Foster, Erik
Hickling, Graham

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Abstract

© The Author 2017.Background. Most Lyme disease cases in the Midwestern United States are reported in Minnesota and Wisconsin. In recent years, however, a widening geographic extent of Lyme disease has been noted with evidence of expansion eastwards into Michigan and neighboring states with historically low incidence rates. Methods. We collected confirmed and probable cases of Lyme disease from 2000 through 2014 from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, entering them in a geographic information system. We performed spatial focal cluster analyses to characterize Lyme disease expansion. We compared the distribution of human cases with recent Ixodes scapularis tick distribution studies. Results. Lyme disease cases in both the Upper and Lower Peninsulas of Michigan expanded more than 5-fold over the study period. Although increases were seen throughout the Upper Peninsula, the Lower Peninsula particularly expanded along the Indiana border north along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan. Human cases corresponded to a simultaneous expansion in established I scapularis tick populations. Conclusions. The geographic distribution of Lyme disease cases significantly expanded in Michigan between 2000 and 2014, particularly northward along the Lake Michigan shore. If such dynamic trends continue, Michigan-and possibly neighboring areas of Indiana, Ohio, and Ontario, Canada-can expect a continued increase in Lyme disease cases.

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10.1093/oid/ofw269

Publication Info

Lantos, Paul M, Jean Tsao, Lise E Nigrovic, Paul G Auwaerter, Vance G Fowler, Felicia Ruffin, Erik Foster, Graham Hickling, et al. (2017). Geographic expansion of Lyme disease in Michigan, 2000-2014. Open Forum Infectious Diseases, 4(1). pp. 1–5. 10.1093/oid/ofw269 Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/13950.

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Scholars@Duke

Lantos

Paul Michael Lantos

Professor of Medicine

I am interested in the spatial epidemiology of infectious diseases. My research utilizes geographic information systems (GIS) and geostatistical analyses to understand the spatial and spatiotemporal distribution of diseases, and their relationship with environmental and demographic factors. I currently have active studies evaluating the spatial distribution of numerous domestic and international infectious diseases, including SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), cytomegalovirus, influenza, and Lyme disease. Additionally I am interested in maternal-child health, and I have a number of ongoing studies of neighborhood health disparities in obstetrical care and birth outcomes. I am interested in GIS education and have conducted workshops on public health GIS in Mongolia and China.

Fowler

Vance Garrison Fowler

Florence McAlister Distinguished Professor of Medicine

Determinants of Outcome in Patients with Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia
Antibacterial Resistance
Pathogenesis of Bacterial Infections
Tropical medicine/International Health

Ruffin

Felicia Ruffin

Research Program Leader, Tier 1

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