Impact of Resource-Extractive Land Concessions on Malaria Incidence in the Peruvian Amazon: A 2015 to 2020 Retrospective Study

Abstract

Malaria is a life-threatening vector-borne disease (VBD) that remains a major health concern for the northernmost region of Loreto, Peru. Increased malaria incidence has been connected to extractive industries such as mining and logging through factors such as increased deforestation, human mobility, and limited healthcare access. Due to limited knowledge on the impact of concessionary activity on malaria incidence, this study aims to: (1) investigate district-level malaria outbreak patterns across concessionary mining sites in Loreto, Peru and (2) determine the districts and population at most risk of malaria exposure in concessionary areas. Data was obtained from the Peruvian Ministry of Mines, Agriculture, and Health, as well as the Global Forest Watch (GFW). A Bayesian spatiotemporal Poisson regression model was fit for P. vivax and P. falciparum for the epidemiological weeks of 2015 to 2020 to see test the relationship between active mining concessions (in hectares and site number) and malaria incidence for the 53 districts of Loreto, Peru. We found that as mining hectares increased, malaria increased. Conversely, as mining sites increased, malaria incidence fell, possibly due to distribution of health services in condensed concessionary areas. Overall, this research will contribute to a better understanding of malaria reemergence and incidence in the Peruvian Amazon, and the relationship between concessionary land activity and VBDs. Results from this project could improve malaria forecasting models and land-use management practices.