Planning for Growing Electricity Demand During an Era of Uncertain Renewables and Climate Policy
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2024-11-15
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Electricity demand growth has accelerated significantly, a trend that is expected to continue for at least the next 5 to 10 years and is driven by new technologies such as data centers and the expansion of the manufacturing and industrial base in the United States. This demand growth is anticipated at a time when connecting new generating resources to the grid, particularly renewables, and expanding transmission has never been more difficult. New emissions rules for existing coal and new gas units (the EPA Final Greenhouse Gas [GHG] Rule) will also create additional pressure toward clean generation on the system.
This analysis uses a variety of integrated resource plans from utilities and other groups to estimate how overall electricity demand may change over the next decade. The trends are then analyzed using an electricity capacity-planning-and-dispatch model to evaluate how the US system may respond in a world of high demand growth. The findings suggest that additional electricity needs are likely to be met with a combination of new natural-gas and renewables capacity. Limitations on the ability of the system to incorporate renewables may place significant upward pressure on emissions, as would repeal of parts or all of the GHG rules.
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Ross, Martin, John Ewing, Brian Murray, Timothy Profeta, Robert Stout and Michael Yoo (2024). Planning for Growing Electricity Demand During an Era of Uncertain Renewables and Climate Policy. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/31676.
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Scholars@Duke
Martin Ross
Martin Ross is a senior research economist at Duke University's Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, specializing in environmental and energy economics and macroeconomic-simulation modeling.
Prior to joining the Nicholas Institute at the end of 2011, he worked with RTI International where he developed the Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE) model, which is used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to respond to Congressional requests for legislative analyses. The ADAGE model can investigate many types of economic, energy, environmental, and trade policies at the international, national, and U.S. regional levels. It is particularly useful for examining how climate-change mitigation policies limiting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy consumption and non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will affect all sectors of the economy, altering industrial and residential energy consumption and efficiency. Research conducted for the U.S. EPA Climate Change Division, the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum, and the Pew Center on Global Climate Change has involved using the ADAGE model to estimate U.S. macroeconomic impacts of legislative proposals to reduce GHG emissions. Other modeling by Ross has included developing a detailed technology model of electricity markets to examine how criteria pollutant and GHG policies affect capacity planning decisions and generation costs.
Prior to joining RTI, Ross spent several years at Charles River Associates where he developed regional models to look at effects of climate-change mitigation policies and macroeconomic impacts of electric-utility legislation. In addition to his legislative analysis, Ross has advised industry groups such as the Electric Power Research Institute and Edison Electric Institute on economic and electricity modeling, and is published in The Energy Journal, Energy Economics, and Climactic Change, among others.
Ross holds both a doctoral and master's degree in economics from the University of Colorado, Boulder, and a bachelor's degree in economics from Michigan State University.
John Jackson Ewing
Jackson Ewing is director of energy and climate policy at the Nicholas Institute of Energy, Environment & Sustainability at Duke University. He is also an adjunct associate professor at the Nicholas School of the Environment and a faculty affiliate with the Duke Center for International Development at the Sanford School of Public Policy. He works closely with the Duke Kunshan University Environmental Research Center and International Masters of Environmental Policy programs to build policy research collaboration across Duke platforms in the United States and China.
Prior to joining Duke, Ewing was director of Asian Sustainability at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York, where he led projects on Asian carbon market cooperation and sustainable resource development in the ASEAN Economic Community. He previously served as a MacArthur Fellow and head of the Environment, Climate Change and Food Security Program at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and has worked throughout Asia with actors in government, the private sector, civil society, and international organizations.
Ewing publishes widely through a range of mediums and is a regular contributor to radio, television and print media. He holds a doctorate in environmental security and master's degree in international relations from Australia’s Bond University, and a bachelor’s degree in political science from the College of Charleston.
Brian Murray
Dr. Brian C. Murray is Director of the Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Research Professor at the Nicholas School of the Environment (primary) and Sanford School of Public Policy (secondary), and Faculty Associate of the Duke Initiative for Science & Society. In 2015 he was Fulbright Visiting Research Chair in Environment and Economy at University of Ottawa’s Institute of the Environment. He is widely recognized for his work on the economics of energy and climate change policy, including the design of market based mechanisms to reduce greenhouse gases and deploy low-carbon energy. Members of the United States Congress, state legislators and regulators have sought the counsel of Dr. Murray and colleagues in developing energy and climate legislative proposals and regulatory options. Their development of the cost containment reserve mechanism is now in use in several greenhouse cap-and-trade programs in North America. Dr. Murray has been invited as a co-author of several national and international assessments of natural resources, especially related to energy and climate change. Of particular note, he serves on a National Academy of Sciences panel on greenhouse gases and the tax code, where he led the panel’s efforts on biofuel subsidies. He was a convening lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Special Report on Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry. He has convened several forums of economic modeling experts to examine and communicate the results of their climate, energy and land use policy efforts to the public and private sectors. His research has examined the economic effects of traditional command-based regulatory strategies for pollution control and more market-oriented approaches such as cap-and-trade programs and emission taxes. He has been a consultant to a wide range of clientele in the public and private sector, including numerous federal government agencies, members of Congress and their staff, state regulatory agencies, CEOs and senior staff from Fortune 500 companies, trade groups, nongovernmental organizations, and other academic institutions. He has authored or co-authored over 100 publications in books, edited volumes, and professional journals across a range od disciplines. From 2017-21 he was a regular contributor to Forbes. Prior to coming to the Nicholas Institute in 2006, Dr. Murray was Director of the Center for Regulatory Economics and Policy Research at RTI International, a university-affiliated not-for-profit research institution.
Timothy H Profeta
Tim Profeta is a senior fellow at Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability and associate professor of the practice at Duke’s Sanford School of Public Policy.
In 2023, Profeta returned to Duke from two years of service at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, where he served as the special counsel for the power sector and a senior advisor. At the Agency, Profeta had a lead role in the development of the regulatory strategy affecting the power sector, including the recent proposed greenhouse gas regulations, served as a liaison between the Agency and other federal departments and agencies regarding power sector policies, and took an instrumental role in the design of several Agency programs that were authorized in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.
Prior to leaving for EPA, Profeta was the founding director of the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, which merged with the Duke University Energy Initiative in 2021 to create the Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability. Since its creation in 2005, the Nicholas Institute has grown into a major nonpartisan player in key environmental debates, serving both the public and private sectors with sound understanding of complex environmental issues.
Profeta’s areas of expertise include climate change and energy policy, the Clean Air Act, and adaptive use of current environmental laws to address evolving environmental challenges. His work at the Nicholas Institute has included numerous legislative and executive branch proposals to mitigate climate change, including providing Congressional testimony several times on his work at Duke University, developing multiple legislative proposals for cost containment and economic efficiency in greenhouse gas mitigation programs, and facilitating climate and energy policy design processes for several U.S. states.
Prior to his arrival at Duke, Profeta served as counsel for the environment to Sen. Joseph Lieberman. As Lieberman’s counsel, he was a principal architect of the Lieberman-McCain Climate Stewardship Act of 2003. He also represented Lieberman in legislative negotiations pertaining to environmental and energy issues, as well as coordinating the senator’s energy and environmental portfolio during his runs for national office. Profeta has continued to build on his Washington experience to engage in the most pertinent debates surrounding climate change and energy.
Profeta is a member of the Climate Action Reserve Board of Directors, and is a member of The American Law Institute.
Profeta earned a J.D., magna cum laude, and a master's in environmental management in resource ecology from Duke in 1997 and a Bachelor's degree in political science from Yale University in 1992.
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