Planning for Growing Electricity Demand During an Era of Uncertain Renewables and Climate Policy

Abstract

Electricity demand growth has accelerated significantly, a trend that is expected to continue for at least the next 5 to 10 years and is driven by new technologies such as data centers and the expansion of the manufacturing and industrial base in the United States. This demand growth is anticipated at a time when connecting new generating resources to the grid, particularly renewables, and expanding transmission has never been more difficult. New emissions rules for existing coal and new gas units (the EPA Final Greenhouse Gas [GHG] Rule) will also create additional pressure toward clean generation on the system. This analysis uses a variety of integrated resource plans from utilities and other groups to estimate how overall electricity demand may change over the next decade. The trends are then analyzed using an electricity capacity-planning-and-dispatch model to evaluate how the US system may respond in a world of high demand growth. The findings suggest that additional electricity needs are likely to be met with a combination of new natural-gas and renewables capacity. Limitations on the ability of the system to incorporate renewables may place significant upward pressure on emissions, as would repeal of parts or all of the GHG rules.