Surface Ozone Change in China from 2010 to 2017 and its Impact on Crop Yield

Abstract

Ambient Ozone (O3) exposure is considered to impose negative impacts on plants and crops. In this study, we performed a comprehensive estimation on the crop yield losses attribute to surface O3 in China from 2010 to 2017 applying the model predicted ambient ozone concertation across China. Spatial and temporal distribution of relative yield loss and crop production loss was calculated using AOT40 metrics (hourly ozone concentration over a threshold of 0.04 ppm h over the growing season). Our results show that from 2010 to 2017, national average AOT40 level ranges from 44 ppm h in 2010 to 71 ppm h in 2014. By using concentration response function, we then calculated the crops relative yields, including wheat, rice, maize and soybean from surface ozone, and found that average O3 induced crop yield loss were around 44.67 million Mt, 44.74 million Mt, 7.41 million Mt, and 0.38 million Mt individually, inducing average economic loss of $15.76Billion, $20.33Billion, $0.58 Billion, and $0.29Billion accordingly. Our results provided quantitative estimation on crop yield loss and its economic cost from ambient ozone concentration and improved the understanding of crop and spatial sensitivity to ozone impact.