ANALYZING THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF FISH SPECIES ALONG THE MID AND SOUTH ATLANTIC BIGHTS AND PROJECTING FUTURE DISTRIBUTIONS UNDER A CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

Abstract

As anthropogenic climate change increases the temperatures of the world’s oceans, the survival rates, spatial distribution, and phenology of marine species are adversely impacted. This study evaluates the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change on seven commercially regulated fish species along the South Atlantic and Mid-Atlantic Bight. Coupling random forest models with the outputs from 27 climate models, this study projects the future distribution of species using bottom temperature, salinity, substrate type and AMO and NAO indices. Results indicate that species distribution shifts vary depending on the season, the species preferred temperature range, and the relative importance of habitat and salinity for the species.