Is Energy-Only Interconnection Working? Empirical Evidence from Two Decades of US Market Data
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2026-06-15
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Abstract
Growth in electricity demand and generation is increasingly constrained by generator interconnection bottlenecks, with 2,061 gigawatts of proposed capacity stalled in US queues. Energy-only, or non-firm, interconnection is intended to let generators connect to the grid more cheaply and quickly by accepting "as-available" service. Texas's "connect and manage" model has made this approach central to reform debates, but most US regions instead offer two service options: firm Network Resource Interconnection Service (NRIS) and non-firm Energy Resource Interconnection Service (ERIS). Using a dataset of over 36,000 interconnection requests and 4,500 cost studies spanning two decades, we show that ERIS fails to function as a true non-firm access option, offering neither cheaper nor faster interconnection. The historical network-upgrade cost discount associated with ERIS is driven by a "threshold effect," providing financial relief only when network upgrades are entirely avoided. Once physical upgrades are triggered, non-firm (ERIS) and firm (NRIS) interconnection face statistically comparable costs. As mounting grid constraints have cut the share of zero-cost ERIS outcomes from 80% to 10%, ERIS's financial and temporal advantages have largely evaporated and developer demand for this service has contracted. Our results suggest that the concept of "energy-only" interconnection is not inherently flawed; rather, ERIS's observed performance stems from restrictive study methodologies that do not reflect the characteristics of a true non-firm service option. These findings point to an opportunity to align interconnection rules with as-available grid access through operational redispatch, and to examine whether capacity value can remain informed by grid constraints without being dictated by interconnection service.
Note: This manuscript is one of two complementary papers on energy-only interconnection. The companion paper reviews the regulatory and institutional design of ERIS and is also available as an DukeSpace preprint under the title, ‘A Review of United States Energy-only Generator Interconnection Service Policy and Considerations for Reform’, available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10161/34843
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Norris, Tyler, Dalia Patino-Echeverri, Will Gorman, Fredrich Kahrl, Joachim Seel and Joseph Rand (2026). Is Energy-Only Interconnection Working? Empirical Evidence from Two Decades of US Market Data. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/34836.
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Tyler Norris
Tyler H. Norris is a James B. Duke Fellow at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment, where his PhD research focuses on electric power systems in the GRACE Lab led by Prof. Dalia Patino-Echeverri.
Norris brings nearly 15 years of energy sector experience to his research. Most recently, he was VP of development at Cypress Creek Renewables, a leading US independent power producer, where he oversaw a multi-gigawatt project portfolio and regularly directed electricity simulation studies for use in regulatory proceedings. Previously, he served as a director at S&P Global Platts, an international energy consultancy, where he developed power market forecasts for electric utilities and integrated majors. Prior to S&P, he was a special advisor at the US Department of Energy, where he designed technology commercialization programs.
Norris has served as an expert witness in multiple state utility commission proceedings related to interconnection, resource planning, and wholesale electricity rates. In 2020 he was appointed to Governor Cooper’s Carbon Policy Working Group to advise the development of NC's state-wide electricity decarbonization standard (H.951). In 2019 he was awarded “Clean Energy Leader of the Year” by the NC Sustainable Energy Association, and in 2023 was named to BusinessNC's annual "Power List” for energy.
Norris currently serves as chair of the board of the NC Clean Energy Fund and was previously elected vice chair of the Carolinas Clean Energy Business Association and co-chair of the Clean Power Suppliers Association. His writing has appeared in the New York Times, Foreign Affairs, Harvard Law & Policy Review, and elsewhere. He is a recipient of the Harry S. Truman Scholarship and Forbes 30 Under 30, received his B.A. in public policy from Stanford University, and graduated from the NC School of Science & Mathematics.
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