Mirages of Equilibrium: William Riker and the Birth of Positive Political Theory

Abstract

This paper examines the history of Positive Political Theory (PPT) and William H. Riker’s pursuit of political equilibrium. Riker's project was to transform the study of politics into a scientific enterprise, making him arguably the first political “scientist.” This initiative originated as a reaction to his graduate studies, where he observed a predominant focus on philosophical theories about how the world should work. Dissatisfied with this approach, he turned to mathematics, logic, and economics for insights into politics. Drawing parallels between equilibrium in game theory and economics, he began to connect it with policy decisions within committees, coalitions, and elections. Riker's approach, initially grounded in a nuanced and sometimes contradictory understanding of equilibrium, changed over two decades of research. After unsatisfying findings on equilibrium outcomes, Riker proposed a methodological shift, introducing political disequilibrium as a key concept in politics. This would carry significant implications for the theory of democracy – it discredited any hope that “populism” could work, endorsing instead what he called “Madisonian liberalism.” This study finally considers the academic debates that the notion of equilibrium sparked, including among Public Choice theorists and New Institutionalists.