Sustainable Sourcing of Edible Oils in a Changing Climate: Risk Assessment, Corporate Benchmarking, and Strategic Recommendations for U.S. Food Companies

Abstract

Climate change poses mounting risks to global edible oil supply chains, threatening the yield stability of crops that large food manufacturers depend on at scale, including palm, soybean, canola, sunflower, corn, and rice bran oil. This paper examines how projected climatic shifts may affect oil crop productivity in major producing regions, and assesses the financial, operational, and sustainability implications for a U.S.-based food company with significant global oil procurement. To support corporate decision-making, an interactive Edible Oils Dashboard was developed, incorporating a Climate Risk and Price Calculator and a Scope 3 CO₂e Calculator. The paper also includes a sustainability benchmarking analysis of leading CPG companies, evaluates key sourcing trade-offs, and concludes with a phased set of recommendations for building a more resilient and low-emissions edible oil portfolio over the next decade.