Malaria Transmission in Border Regions of the Western Amazon: Incorporating watersheds into timeseries analysis to address disease reintroduction and spillover along the Ecuador-Peru border

Abstract

Since 2010, Amazon-basin countries have experienced a 600% increase in malaria cases, the most rapid increase compared to any other region of the world. Border regions have been implicated as important hot spots of malaria transmission, particularly in Latin America. This study focuses on the Amazon border between Ecuador and Peru, a region that exhibits a steep gradient of transmission intensity, with Peru having a much higher incidence of malaria than Ecuador. The study provides a framework for incorporating watersheds into timeseries analysis to better predict malaria spatial temporal trends along borders. Results demonstrate that malaria control based on ecologically defined spatial areas could potentially provide more effective disease management than malaria control based on administrative boundaries.