Unity or Division? Territorial Threats, Inequality and Identity Formation in Multi-Ethnic Societies

Abstract

This paper examines how territorial threats interact with ethnic intergroup inequalities to shape individuals' identity preferences. Drawing on data from the Afrobarometer surveys, the Militarized Interstate Disputes dataset, and the All Minorities at Risk dataset, this study examines how territorial threats impact individuals’ national and ethnic identity preference, and how various dimensions of ethnic between-group inequality moderate this relationship. The findings suggest that individuals in targeted countries are more likely to strengthen their national identity when faced with territorial threats. This pattern demonstrates that territorial threats, as a shared external challenge, can serve to reinforce national cohesion. However, this study does not find empirical evidence that political, economic, or cultural ethnic inequality moderates the unifying effect of territorial threats. This suggests that the unifying impact of territorial threats is not significantly conditioned by ethnic inequality within the scope of this analysis.