Reconciling phylodynamics with epidemiology: the case of dengue virus in southern Vietnam.

Date

2014-02

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Repository Usage Stats

144
views
177
downloads

Citation Stats

Abstract

Coalescent methods are widely used to infer the demographic history of populations from gene genealogies. These approaches-often referred to as phylodynamic methods-have proven especially useful for reconstructing the dynamics of rapidly evolving viral pathogens. Yet, population dynamics inferred from viral genealogies often differ widely from those observed from other sources of epidemiological data, such as hospitalization records. We demonstrate how a modeling framework that allows for the direct fitting of mechanistic epidemiological models to genealogies can be used to test different hypotheses about what ecological factors cause phylodynamic inferences to differ from observed dynamics. We use this framework to test different hypotheses about why dengue serotype 1 (DENV-1) population dynamics in southern Vietnam inferred using existing phylodynamic methods differ from hospitalization data. Specifically, we consider how factors such as seasonality, vector dynamics, and spatial structure can affect inferences drawn from genealogies. The coalescent models we derive to take into account vector dynamics and spatial structure reveal that these ecological complexities can substantially affect coalescent rates among lineages. We show that incorporating these additional ecological complexities into coalescent models can also greatly improve estimates of historical population dynamics and lead to new insights into the factors shaping viral genealogies.

Department

Description

Provenance

Citation

Published Version (Please cite this version)

10.1093/molbev/mst203

Publication Info

Rasmussen, David A, Maciej F Boni and Katia Koelle (2014). Reconciling phylodynamics with epidemiology: the case of dengue virus in southern Vietnam. Mol Biol Evol, 31(2). pp. 258–271. 10.1093/molbev/mst203 Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/10611.

This is constructed from limited available data and may be imprecise. To cite this article, please review & use the official citation provided by the journal.


Unless otherwise indicated, scholarly articles published by Duke faculty members are made available here with a CC-BY-NC (Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial) license, as enabled by the Duke Open Access Policy. If you wish to use the materials in ways not already permitted under CC-BY-NC, please consult the copyright owner. Other materials are made available here through the author’s grant of a non-exclusive license to make their work openly accessible.