Projection of young-old and old-old with functional disability: does accounting for the changing educational composition of the elderly population make a difference?
| dc.contributor.author | Ansah, John P | |
| dc.contributor.author | Malhotra, Rahul | |
| dc.contributor.author | Lew, Nicola | |
| dc.contributor.author | Chiu, Chi-Tsun | |
| dc.contributor.author | Chan, Angelique | |
| dc.contributor.author | Bayer, Steffen | |
| dc.contributor.author | Matchar, David B | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-05-05T09:10:42Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2021-05-05T09:10:42Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2015-01 | |
| dc.date.updated | 2021-05-05T09:10:41Z | |
| dc.description.abstract | This study compares projections, up to year 2040, of young-old (aged 60-79) and old-old (aged 80+) with functional disability in Singapore with and without accounting for the changing educational composition of the Singaporean elderly. Two multi-state population models, with and without accounting for educational composition respectively, were developed, parameterized with age-gender-(education)-specific transition probabilities (between active, functional disability and death states) estimated from two waves (2009 and 2011) of a nationally representative survey of community-dwelling Singaporeans aged ≥ 60 years (N=4,990). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis with the bootstrap method was used to obtain the 95% confidence interval of the transition probabilities. Not accounting for educational composition overestimated the young-old with functional disability by 65 percent and underestimated the old-old by 20 percent in 2040. Accounting for educational composition, the proportion of old-old with functional disability increased from 40.8 percent in 2000 to 64.4 percent by 2040; not accounting for educational composition, the proportion in 2040 was 49.4 percent. Since the health profiles, and hence care needs, of the old-old differ from those of the young-old, health care service utilization and expenditure and the demand for formal and informal caregiving will be affected, impacting health and long-term care policy. | |
| dc.identifier | PONE-D-14-43110 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1932-6203 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1932-6203 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | ||
| dc.language | eng | |
| dc.publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) | |
| dc.relation.ispartof | PloS one | |
| dc.relation.isversionof | 10.1371/journal.pone.0126471 | |
| dc.subject | Humans | |
| dc.subject | Disability Evaluation | |
| dc.subject | Long-Term Care | |
| dc.subject | Health Surveys | |
| dc.subject | Aging | |
| dc.subject | Forecasting | |
| dc.subject | Aged | |
| dc.subject | Aged, 80 and over | |
| dc.subject | Middle Aged | |
| dc.subject | Educational Status | |
| dc.subject | Health Expenditures | |
| dc.subject | Health Services Needs and Demand | |
| dc.subject | Singapore | |
| dc.subject | Female | |
| dc.subject | Male | |
| dc.title | Projection of young-old and old-old with functional disability: does accounting for the changing educational composition of the elderly population make a difference? | |
| dc.type | Journal article | |
| duke.contributor.orcid | Matchar, David B|0000-0003-3020-2108 | |
| pubs.begin-page | e0126471 | |
| pubs.issue | 5 | |
| pubs.organisational-group | School of Medicine | |
| pubs.organisational-group | Duke Clinical Research Institute | |
| pubs.organisational-group | Duke Global Health Institute | |
| pubs.organisational-group | Pathology | |
| pubs.organisational-group | Medicine, General Internal Medicine | |
| pubs.organisational-group | Duke | |
| pubs.organisational-group | Institutes and Centers | |
| pubs.organisational-group | University Institutes and Centers | |
| pubs.organisational-group | Institutes and Provost's Academic Units | |
| pubs.organisational-group | Clinical Science Departments | |
| pubs.organisational-group | Medicine | |
| pubs.publication-status | Published | |
| pubs.volume | 10 |
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