A model to predict risk of blood transfusion after gynecologic surgery.

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BACKGROUND: A model that predicts a patient's risk of receiving a blood transfusion may facilitate selective preoperative testing and more efficient perioperative blood management utilization. OBJECTIVE: We sought to construct and validate a model that predicts a patient's risk of receiving a blood transfusion after gynecologic surgery. STUDY DESIGN: In all, 18,319 women who underwent gynecologic surgery at 10 institutions in a single health system by 116 surgeons from January 2010 through June 2014 were analyzed. The data set was split into a model training cohort of 12,219 surgeries performed from January 2010 through December 2012 and a separate validation cohort of 6100 surgeries performed from January 2013 through June 2014. In all, 47 candidate risk factors for transfusion were collected. Multiple logistic models were fit onto the training cohort to predict transfusion within 30 days of surgery. Variables were removed using stepwise backward reduction to find the best parsimonious model. Model discrimination was measured using the concordance index. The model was internally validated using 1000 bootstrapped samples and temporally validated by testing the model's performance in the validation cohort. Calibration and decision curves were plotted to inform clinicians about the accuracy of predicted probabilities and whether the model adds clinical benefit when making decisions. RESULTS: The transfusion rate in the training cohort was 2% (95% confidence interval, 1.72-2.22). The model had excellent discrimination and calibration during internal validation (bias-corrected concordance index, 0.906; 95% confidence interval, 0.890-0.928) and maintained accuracy during temporal validation using the separate validation cohort (concordance index, 0.915; 95% confidence interval, 0.872-0.954). Calibration curves demonstrated the model was accurate up to 40% then it began to overpredict risk. The model provides superior net benefit when clinical decision thresholds are between 0-50% predicted risk. CONCLUSION: This model accurately predicts a patient's risk of transfusion after gynecologic surgery facilitating selective preoperative testing and more efficient perioperative blood management utilization.





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Stanhiser, Jamie, Kevin Chagin and J Eric Jelovsek (2017). A model to predict risk of blood transfusion after gynecologic surgery. Am J Obstet Gynecol, 216(5). pp. 506.e1–506.e14. 10.1016/j.ajog.2017.01.004 Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/15112.

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John E Jelovsek

F. Bayard Carter Distinguished Professor of Obstetrics and Gynecology

Dr. Jelovsek is the F. Bayard Carter Distinguished Professor of OBGYN at Duke University and serves as Director of Data Science for Women’s Health. He is Board Certified in OBGYN by the American Board of OBGYN and in Female Pelvic Medicine & Reconstructive Surgery by the American Board of OBGYN and American Board of Urology. He has an active surgical practice in urogynecology based out of Duke Raleigh. He has expertise as a clinician-scientist in developing and evaluating clinical prediction models using traditional biostatistics and machine learning approaches. These “individualized” patient-centered prediction tools aim to improve decision-making regarding the prevention of lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and other pelvic floor disorders after childbirth (PMID:29056536), de novo stress urinary incontinence and other patient-perceived outcomes after pelvic organ prolapse surgery, risk of transfusion during gynecologic surgery, and urinary outcomes after mid-urethral sling surgery (PMID: 26942362). He also has significant expertise in leading trans-disciplinary teams through NIH-funded multi-center research networks and international settings. As alternate-PI for the Cleveland Clinic site in the NICHD Pelvic Floor Disorders Network, he was principal investigator on the CAPABLe trial (PMID: 31320277), one of the largest multi-center trials for fecal incontinence studying anal exercises with biofeedback and loperamide for the treatment of fecal incontinence. He was the principal investigator of the E-OPTIMAL study (PMID: 29677302), describing the long-term follow up sacrospinous ligament fixation compared to uterosacral ligament suspension for apical vaginal prolapse. He was also primary author on research establishing the minimum important clinical difference for commonly used measures of fecal incontinence. Currently, he serves as co-PI in the NIDDK Symptoms of Lower Urinary Tract Dysfunction Research Network (LURN) (U01DK097780-05) where he has been involved in studies in the development of Symptoms of Lower Urinary Tract Dysfunction Research Network Symptom Index-29 (LURN SI-29) and LURN SI-10 questionnaires for men and women with LUTS. He is also the site-PI for the PREMIER trial (1R01HD105892): Patient-Centered Outcomes of Sacrocolpopexy versus Uterosacral Ligament Suspension for the Treatment of Uterovaginal Prolapse.

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