Effects of Conservation Area Proximity and Size on Municipal Ballot Measures in the Eastern United States

Abstract

In recent decades, conservation ballot measures have been one of the principal means of conserving land in the United States. Recent research suggests that public support for these measures is significantly influenced by the characteristics of existing conservation areas, like land use designations. No studies thus far have investigated the impacts of existing conservation area size and proximity to municipalities on municipal conservation referendum success. We hypothesized that these variables would be negatively and positively correlated with referendum success, respectively, while state, time period, and additional socioeconomic and demographic variables would not be correlated with referendum success. Our hypotheses were tested using a multiple logistic regression model and multiple linear regression model, yielding results that suggests negative correlations between referendum success and particular time periods, as well as positive correlation with certain socioeconomic and demographic variables, but no correlation with conservation area size or proximity. These results suggest that the physical conservation area characteristics assessed do not have the potential to influence referendum success, however our models have limited explanatory power and further study is needed to clarify this relationship.