Differentially Private Fisher Randomization Tests for Binary Outcomes

Abstract

Across many disciplines, causal inference often relies on randomized experiments with binary outcomes. In such experiments, the Fisher randomization test provides exact, assumption-free tests for causal effects. Sometimes the outcomes are sensitive and must be kept confidential, for example, when they comprise physical or mental health measurements. Releasing test statistics or p-values computed with the confidential outcomes can leak information about the individuals in the study. Those responsible for sharing the analysis results may wish to bound this information leakage, which they can do by ensuring the released outputs satisfy differential privacy. In this thesis, we develop several differentially private versions of the Fisher randomization test for binary outcomes. Specifically, we consider direct perturbation approaches that inject calibrated noise into test statistics or p-values, as well as a mechanism-aware, Bayesian denoising framework that explicitly models the privacy mechanism. We further develop decision-making procedures under privacy constraints, including a Bayes risk-optimal rule and a frequentist-calibrated significance test. Through theoretical results, simulation studies, and an application to the ADAPTABLE clinical trial, we demonstrate that our methods can achieve valid and interpretable causal inference while ensuring the differential privacy guarantee.