Countrypolitan Grammar: Exploring Exurban Voter Behavior in North Carolina

Abstract

Despite their decisive role in recent U.S. Presidential elections, exurban counties remain a blind spot in spatial polarization research. This paper explores exurban voter behav- ior through a case study of North Carolina’s ’Countrypolitan’ counties—the fastest- growing and most conservative areas in the state. Using individual-level data from the 2024 Cooperative Election Study, I estimate a linear probability model to evaluate how the exurban environment alters core drivers of voter choice. I find that exurbia muffles the role of economic identity, amplifies the role of social identity, and heightens the influence of private institutions on Countrypolitan voter’s electoral decisions. Income polarization is neutralized, racial and gender attitudes are magnified, and electoral deviation on the basis of church-related political issues is circumscribed compared to the rest of the state. Education’s influence is attenuated not just in Countrypolitan counties but in all of North Carolina, with a supplementary national-level analysis identifying a significant reduction in the electorally liberalizing effects of college at- tainment for Southern voters. I theorize that these effects stem from a combination of fragmented exurban infrastructure and traditional Southern hierarchies, arguing that exurbia functions as an active socioinstitutional barrier against urbanization.