Joint Analyses of Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data in Research on Aging: Implications for Predicting Health and Survival.

Abstract

Longitudinal data on aging, health, and longevity provide a wealth of information to investigate different aspects of the processes of aging and development of diseases leading to death. Statistical methods aimed at analyses of time-to-event data jointly with longitudinal measurements became known as the "joint models" (JM). An important point to consider in analyses of such data in the context of studies on aging, health, and longevity is how to incorporate knowledge and theories about mechanisms and regularities of aging-related changes that accumulate in the research field into respective analytic approaches. In the absence of specific observations of longitudinal dynamics of relevant biomarkers manifesting such mechanisms and regularities, traditional approaches have a rather limited utility to estimate respective parameters that can be meaningfully interpreted from the biological point of view. A conceptual analytic framework for these purposes, the stochastic process model of aging (SPM), has been recently developed in the biodemographic literature. It incorporates available knowledge about mechanisms of aging-related changes, which may be hidden in the individual longitudinal trajectories of physiological variables and this allows for analyzing their indirect impact on risks of diseases and death. Despite, essentially, serving similar purposes, JM and SPM developed in parallel in different disciplines with very limited cross-referencing. Although there were several publications separately reviewing these two approaches, there were no publications presenting both these approaches in some detail. Here, we overview both approaches jointly and provide some new modifications of SPM. We discuss the use of stochastic processes to capture biological variation and heterogeneity in longitudinal patterns and important and promising (but still largely underused) applications of JM and SPM to predictions of individual and population mortality and health-related outcomes.

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Citation

Published Version (Please cite this version)

10.3389/fpubh.2014.00228

Publication Info

Arbeev, Konstantin G, Igor Akushevich, Alexander M Kulminski, Svetlana V Ukraintseva and Anatoliy I Yashin (2014). Joint Analyses of Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data in Research on Aging: Implications for Predicting Health and Survival. Front Public Health, 2. p. 228. 10.3389/fpubh.2014.00228 Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/14758.

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Scholars@Duke

Arbeev

Konstantin Arbeev

Associate Research Professor in the Social Science Research Institute

Konstantin G. Arbeev received the M.S. degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow State University (branch in Ulyanovsk, Russia) in 1995 and the Ph.D. degree in Mathematics and Physics (specialization in Theoretical Foundations of Mathematical Modeling, Numerical Methods and Programming) from Ulyanovsk State University (Russia) in 1999. He was a post-doctoral fellow in Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock (Germany) before moving to Duke University in 2004 to work as a Research Scientist and a Senior Research Scientist in the Department of Sociology and the Social Science Research Institute (SSRI).  He is currently an Associate Research Professor in SSRI. Dr. Arbeev's major research interests are related to three interconnected fields of biodemography, biostatistics and genetic epidemiology as pertains to research on aging. The focus of his research is on discovering genetic and non-genetic factors that can affect the process of aging and determine longevity and healthy lifespan. He is interested in both methodological advances in this research area as well as their practical applications to analyses of large-scale longitudinal studies with phenotypic, genetic and, recently, genomic information. Dr. Arbeev authored and co-authored more than 150 peer-reviewed publications in these areas.

Igor Akushevich

Research Professor in the Social Science Research Institute
Kulminski

Alexander Kulminski

Research Professor in the Social Science Research Institute
Ukraintseva

Svetlana Ukraintseva

Research Professor in the Social Science Research Institute

Dr. Ukraintseva studies causes of human aging and related decline in resilience, to identify genetic and other factors responsible for the increase in mortality risk with age eventually limiting longevity. She explores complex relationships, including trade-offs, between physiological aging-changes and risks of major diseases (with emphasis on Alzheimer’s and cancer), as well as survival, to find new genetic and other targets for anti-aging interventions and disease prevention. She also investigates possibilities of repurposing of existing vaccines and treatments for AD prevention and interventions into the aging. For this, Dr. Ukraintseva and her team use data from several large human studies containing rich genetic and phenotypic information (including longitudinal measurements) on thousands of individuals. Dr. Ukraintseva is a PI and Key Investigator on several NIH funded grants, and has more than 130 peer-reviewed publications, including in major journals such as Nature Reviews, Stroke, European Journal of Human Genetics, and some other.

Yashin

Anatoli I. Yashin

Research Professor in the Social Science Research Institute

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