Reputation Cascades In Terrorism

Abstract

This research analyzes one central question and two supporting questions. First, how do individual and group interactions influence aggregate behavior toward terrorism? Second, how does societal reputation impact support of terrorism? Finally, how does the structure of a terrorist organization impact reputation cascades? Applying a theoretical framework of a reputation cascade provides policy-makers and researchers a means to understand aggregate behavior patterns in support for terrorism. A reputation cascades may occur independent of government interventions. Government interventions can influence conditions that enhance a cascade of decreasing support for terrorist activity. Building on the reputation cascade framework, a computational model with government interventions along the two dimensions of information and physical policies is developed. This model indicates that governments' that increase physical intervention policies face a tipping point where increases in physical intervention increase the level of terrorist support in a society. The optimal mix of information and physical policies is determined by the level of individual value for terrorism, the costs to terrorism, and the level of cohesion in a society.