Navigating Rising Waters: Chronic Flooding and Migration Intentions in Eastern North Carolina

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between chronic flooding and migration intentions in coastal North Carolina, with a focus on the counties of Carteret, Craven, Dare, and Hyde. Given the increasing frequency of flooding, this research aims to understand how varying levels of experienced flood intensity affect residents' decisions to remain in or leave their town. Using household survey data from 2021, the study explores both the distribution of flood intensity and migration intention across urban and rural areas, with particular focus on how these variables differ by geographic and demographic characteristics. The findings reveal that respondents who experience medium and low flood intensity are more likely to consider migration, while those facing high flood intensity are generally less likely to migrate, although these results were not consistently statistically significant. By examining how chronic flooding impacts residents' perceptions and future plans, this research offers valuable insights for urban planners and policymakers seeking to develop flood mitigation and adaptation strategies.