Voice of the Congress and of the People on Foreign Relations, 1945-2022

Abstract

This dissertation examines the politics of congressional expression and public opinion formation on foreign relations across post-World War II American history. Introducing a novel, top-down theory of the ‘voice’ of Congress and the people, the project’s primary argument is that the content and polarization of collective congressional expression and public attitudes on foreign policy depend on the connection between the substantive content of a foreign policy and the president’s party affiliation. On-brand foreign policies lead to Vocal Congresses and a Polarized public; off-brand policies lead to Equivocal Congresses and a Moderate public. Such distinctions in Congress and the public emerge because typical legislators have incentives to speak up and take a stance or to equivocate based on policy type. The project investigates the congressional response and public attitudes towards a novel caselist of over 100 major uses of force and diplomatic initiatives from 1945 to 2022, drawing upon: 35 original interviews with congressional policymakers; over 60,000 newly compiled legislator statements on foreign relations, including thousands collected from archives; new data on legislator backgrounds; about 70 historical polls; and novel survey experimentation. This work improves scholarly understanding of the domestic sources and consequences of U.S. foreign policy. By showing where expressed congressional opinion comes from, it reveals the conditions under which influential IR theories that explain credibility and constraint may operate in the United States. By explaining how recurring patterns of congressional messaging shape the public, it advances foundational models of foreign policy opinion formation that point to the importance of elite opinion but say little about its politics. By highlighting when and why presidents are likely to face out-party acquiescence and reduced domestic political polarization overall, it informs ongoing debates over partisan advantages and disadvantages as leaders sail the water’s edge. And by showing how executive choice shapes domestic polarization, the project uncovers how elite politics distorts democratic representation on foreign relations in the United States.