Forests, Wildfires, and their Link with Weather and Landscape Variation: A spatial and temporal analysis within Zambian GMAs

Abstract

Deforestation rates in Zambia have been on the rise in recent decades, accompanied by growing concerns about wildfires exacerbated by climate change and population growth. Because of these trends, understanding forest structure and wildfire intensity, as well as their underlying drivers, is imperative. In this project, the research was conducted within two game management areas, adjacent to Kafue National Park, a cornerstone of one of the world's largest protected regions. The fieldwork for this study involved surveying 30 forest plots to analyze above-ground biomass distributions and identify the spatial environmental factors affecting them. I evaluated the viability of estimating regional above-ground biomass distributions by integrating Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellite data with plot-level above-ground biomass data. Additionally, burn severity was evaluated using satellite-derived dNBR vegetation indices, with comparisons made to temporal variations in weather patterns. These findings are anticipated to offer valuable insights for shaping future wildfire management strategies and carbon mitigation efforts.