Limits of epidemic prediction using SIR models.
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2022-09
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Abstract
The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the model parameters based on noisy observations early in the outbreak, well before the epidemic reaches its peak. This allows prediction of the subsequent course of the epidemic and design of appropriate interventions. However, accurately inferring SIR model parameters in such scenarios is problematic. This article provides novel, theoretical insight on this issue of practical identifiability of the SIR model. Our theory provides new understanding of the inferential limits of routinely used epidemic models and provides a valuable addition to current simulate-and-check methods. We illustrate some practical implications through application to a real-world epidemic data set.
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Melikechi, Omar, Alexander L Young, Tao Tang, Trevor Bowman, David Dunson and James Johndrow (2022). Limits of epidemic prediction using SIR models. Journal of mathematical biology, 85(4). p. 36. 10.1007/s00285-022-01804-5 Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/33536.
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Scholars@Duke
Omar Melikechi
David B. Dunson
My research focuses on developing new tools for probabilistic learning from complex data - methods development is directly motivated by challenging applications in ecology/biodiversity, neuroscience, environmental health, criminal justice/fairness, and more. We seek to develop new modeling frameworks, algorithms and corresponding code that can be used routinely by scientists and decision makers. We are also interested in new inference framework and in studying theoretical properties of methods we develop.
Some highlight application areas:
(1) Modeling of biological communities and biodiversity - we are considering global data on fungi, insects, birds and animals including DNA sequences, images, audio, etc. Data contain large numbers of species unknown to science and we would like to learn about these new species, community network structure, and the impact of environmental change and climate.
(2) Brain connectomics - based on high resolution imaging data of the human brain, we are seeking to developing new statistical and machine learning models for relating brain networks to human traits and diseases.
(3) Environmental health & mixtures - we are building tools for relating chemical and other exposures (air pollution etc) to human health outcomes, accounting for spatial dependence in both exposures and disease. This includes an emphasis on infectious disease modeling, such as COVID-19.
Some statistical areas that play a prominent role in our methods development include models for low-dimensional structure in data (latent factors, clustering, geometric and manifold learning), flexible/nonparametric models (neural networks, Gaussian/spatial processes, other stochastic processes), Bayesian inference frameworks, efficient sampling and analytic approximation algorithms, and models for "object data" (trees, networks, images, spatial processes, etc).
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