Time Horizon and Fiscal Balance in Authoritarian Regimes

Abstract

In this paper, I explore the implications of a dictator's time horizon on the fiscal balance of an authoritarian regime. A dictator with a longer time horizon will discount the future less, thus is more responsible in spending. Since a dictator's time horizon is not directly observable, I discuss the factors that would affect a dictator's time horizon and their influence on the fiscal balance of an authoritarian regime. Testing the results using OLS regressions, limited evidence is found to support my hypotheses. Possible reasons for the inconclusive results are explored and further improvement and future research possibilities are discussed.