Parsing Parley: Strategy and Outcome in Negotiations Between States and Non-state Armed Groups

Abstract

Though scholars have long explored the determinants of negotiation outcomes at the state and non-state levels separately, negotiations between states and non-state actors have been understudied. Of the work that addresses negotiations between states and non-state armed groups (NSAGs), the variables typically used to explain outcomes are generally external to actual talks. My research shifts the analytic focus from the strategic context in which negotiations take place to the negotiations themselves. The principal research question is, "How do negotiation strategies affect outcomes in negotiations between states and non-state armed groups (NSAGs)?" To answer this question, I derive a series of hypotheses, deductively and from existing literature, and evaluate those hypotheses using qualitative methods in case studies from the Middle East and Latin America. I find that certain combinations of negotiation strategies favor negotiation success, and other combinations favor negotiation failure.