Partitioning of time trends in prevalence and mortality of bladder cancer in the United States.

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2020-07

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Abstract

Purpose

The aim of the study was to evaluate the relative contributions of incidence, stage-specific relative survival, and stage ascertainment to changes in bladder cancer (BC) prevalence and incidence-based mortality.

Methods

Partitioning of prevalence and incidence-based mortality trends into their epidemiologic components.

Results

BC prevalence estimated from our model increased but at monotonically decreasing rates until 2007, after which it decreased again. The main forces underlying observed trends in BC prevalence were relative BC survival, which improved throughout the period, and BC incidence, which increased at a decreasing rate until 2005 and declined thereafter. Mortality of persons ever diagnosed with BC increased at an increasing rate until 1997, increased at a decreasing rate from 1997 to 2005, and decreased thereafter. The primary forces accounting for mortality trends were changes in mortality in the general population, which improved at an increasing rate during most of 1992-2010, the most important factor, and changes in incidence. Stage ascertainment did not improve during 1992-2010.

Conclusions

Although mortality rates improved, these gains largely reflected improvements in U.S. population survival rather than from improvements in BC-specific outcomes.

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Published Version (Please cite this version)

10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.05.006

Publication Info

Akushevich, Igor, Arseniy P Yashkin, Brant A Inman and Frank Sloan (2020). Partitioning of time trends in prevalence and mortality of bladder cancer in the United States. Annals of epidemiology, 47. pp. 25–29. 10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.05.006 Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/24265.

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Scholars@Duke

Yashkin

Arseniy Yashkin

Research Scientist, Senior

I am primarily a health outcomes researcher who specializes in cancers and chronic age-related diseases, especially Alzheimer’s disease and type II diabetes mellitus.  However, I also write in epidemiology, demography, health economics and genetics.  I am a specialist in the analysis of administrative big health data.   My main contributions to scholarship can be summarized across three focus areas: health outcomes research, epidemiology and methodology, and health economics.  Some of my most important findings are described below.

Sloan

Frank A. Sloan

J. Alexander McMahon Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Health Policy and Management

Professor Sloan is interested in studying the subjects of health policy and the economics of aging, hospitals, health, pharmaceuticals, and substance abuse. He has received funding from numerous research grants that he earned for studies of which he was the principal investigator. His most recent grants were awarded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, the Center for Disease Control, the Pew Charitable Trust, and the National Institute on Aging. Titles of his projects include, “Why Mature Smokers Do Not Quit,” “Legal and Economic Vulnerabilities of the Master Settlement Agreement,” “Determinants and Cost of Alcohol Abuse Among the Elderly and Near-elderly,” and “Reinsurance Markets and Public Policy.” He received the Investigator Award for his work on the project, “Reoccurring Crises in Medical Malpractice.” Some of his earlier works include the studies entitled, “Policies to Attract Nurses to Underserved Areas,” “The Impact of National Economic Conditions on the Health Care of the Poor-Access,” and “Analysis of Physician Price and Output Decisions.” Professor Sloan’s latest research continues to investigate the trends and repercussions of medical malpractice, physician behavior, and hospital behavior.


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