Strategic planning to reduce the burden of stroke among veterans: using simulation modeling to inform decision making.
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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Reducing the burden of stroke is a priority for the Veterans Affairs Health System, reflected by the creation of the Veterans Affairs Stroke Quality Enhancement Research Initiative. To inform the initiative's strategic planning, we estimated the relative population-level impact and efficiency of distinct approaches to improving stroke care in the US Veteran population to inform policy and practice. METHODS: A System Dynamics stroke model of the Veteran population was constructed to evaluate the relative impact of 15 intervention scenarios including both broad and targeted primary and secondary prevention and acute care/rehabilitation on cumulative (20 years) outcomes including quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, strokes prevented, stroke fatalities prevented, and the number-needed-to-treat per QALY gained. RESULTS: At the population level, a broad hypertension control effort yielded the largest increase in QALYs (35,517), followed by targeted prevention addressing hypertension and anticoagulation among Veterans with prior cardiovascular disease (27,856) and hypertension control among diabetics (23,100). Adjusting QALYs gained by the number of Veterans needed to treat, thrombolytic therapy with tissue-type plasminogen activator was most efficient, needing 3.1 Veterans to be treated per QALY gained. This was followed by rehabilitation (3.9) and targeted prevention addressing hypertension and anticoagulation among those with prior cardiovascular disease (5.1). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the ranking of interventions was robust to uncertainty in input parameter values. CONCLUSIONS: Prevention strategies tend to have larger population impacts, though interventions targeting specific high-risk groups tend to be more efficient in terms of number-needed-to-treat per QALY gained.
Published Version (Please cite this version)
Lich, Kristen Hassmiller, Yuan Tian, Christopher A Beadles, Linda S Williams, Dawn M Bravata, Eric M Cheng, Hayden B Bosworth, Jack B Homer, et al. (2014). Strategic planning to reduce the burden of stroke among veterans: using simulation modeling to inform decision making. Stroke, 45(7). pp. 2078–2084. 10.1161/STROKEAHA.114.004694 Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/13105.
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Dr. Bosworth is a health services researcher and Deputy Director of the Center of Innovation to Accelerate Discovery and Practice Transformation (ADAPT) at the Durham VA Medical Center. He is also Vice Chair of Education and Professor of Population Health Sciences. He is also a Professor of Medicine, Psychiatry, and Nursing at Duke University Medical Center and Adjunct Professor in Health Policy and Administration at the School of Public Health at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. His research interests comprise three overarching areas of research: 1) clinical research that provides knowledge for improving patients’ treatment adherence and self-management in chronic care; 2) translation research to improve access to quality of care; and 3) eliminate health care disparities.
Dr. Bosworth is the recipient of an American Heart Association established investigator award, the 2013 VA Undersecretary Award for Outstanding Achievement in Health Services Research (The annual award is the highest honor for VA health services researchers), and a VA Senior Career Scientist Award. In terms of self-management, Dr. Bosworth has expertise developing interventions to improve health behaviors related to hypertension, coronary artery disease, and depression, and has been developing and implementing tailored patient interventions to reduce the burden of other chronic diseases. These trials focus on motivating individuals to initiate health behaviors and sustaining them long term and use members of the healthcare team, particularly pharmacists and nurses. He has been the Principal Investigator of over 30 trials resulting in over 400 peer reviewed publications and four books. This work has been or is being implemented in multiple arenas including Medicaid of North Carolina, private payers, The United Kingdom National Health System Direct, Kaiser Health care system, and the Veterans Affairs.
Areas of Expertise: Health Behavior, Health Services Research, Implementation Science, Health Measurement, and Health Policy
My research relates to clinical practice improvement - from the development of clinical policies to their implementation in real world clinical settings. Most recently my major content focus has been cerebrovascular disease. Other major clinical areas in which I work include the range of disabling neurological conditions, cardiovascular disease, and cancer prevention.
Notable features of my work are: (1) reliance on analytic strategies such as meta-analysis, simulation, decision analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis; (2) a balancing of methodological rigor the needs of medical professionals; and (3) dependence on interdisciplinary groups of experts.
This approach is best illustrated by the Stroke Prevention Patient Outcome Research Team (PORT), for which I served as principal investigator. Funded by the AHCPR, the PORT involved 35 investigators at 13 institutions. The Stroke PORT has been highly productive and has led to a stroke prevention project funded as a public/private partnership by the AHCPR and DuPont Pharma, the Managing Anticoagulation Services Trial (MAST). MAST is a practice improvement trial in 6 managed care organizations, focussing on optimizing anticoagulation for individuals with atrial fibrillation.
I serve as consultant in the general area of analytic strategies for clinical policy development, as well as for specific projects related to stroke (e.g., acute stroke treatment, management of atrial fibrillation, and use of carotid endarterectomy.) I have worked with AHCPR (now AHRQ), ACP, AHA, AAN, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, NSA, WHO, and several pharmaceutical companies.
Key Words: clinical policy, disease management, stroke, decision analysis, clinical guidelines
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