Age-Associated Disorders As A Proxy Measure Of Biological Age: Findings From the NLTCS Data

Abstract

Background: The relative contribution of different aging-associated processes to the age phenotype may differ among individuals, creating variability in aging manifestations among age-peers. Capturing this variability can significantly advance understanding the aging and mortality. An index of age-associated health disorders (deficits), called a "frailty index" (FI), appears to be a promising characteristic of such processes. In this study we address the connections of the FI with age focusing on disabled individuals who might be at excessive risk of frailty. Methods: The National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) assessed health and functioning of the U.S. elderly in 1982, 1984, 1989, 1994, and 1999. Detailed information for our sample was assessed from about 26,700 interviews. The individual FI is defined as a proportion of deficits for a given person. We perform cross-sectional empirical analysis of the FI age-patterns. Results: FI in the NLTCS exhibits accelerated (quadratic) increase with age. Deficits might accumulate faster among the elderly who, at younger ages, had a low mean FI ("healthy" group) than a high FI ("disabled" group). Age-patterns for "healthy" and "disabled" groups converge at advanced ages. The rate of deficit accumulation is sex-sensitive. Convergence of the (sex-specific) FI for "healthy" and "disabled" groups in later ages determines biological age limits, associated with given levels of health-maintenance in the society, which correspond to 109.4 years for females and 92.5 years for males. Conclusions: The FI can be employed as a measure of biological age and population heterogeneity for modeling aging processes and mortality in elderly individuals.

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Arbeev

Konstantin Arbeev

Associate Research Professor in the Social Science Research Institute

Konstantin G. Arbeev received the M.S. degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow State University (branch in Ulyanovsk, Russia) in 1995 and the Ph.D. degree in Mathematics and Physics (specialization in Theoretical Foundations of Mathematical Modeling, Numerical Methods and Programming) from Ulyanovsk State University (Russia) in 1999. He was a post-doctoral fellow in Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock (Germany) before moving to Duke University in 2004 to work as a Research Scientist and a Senior Research Scientist in the Department of Sociology and the Social Science Research Institute (SSRI).  He is currently an Associate Research Professor in SSRI. Dr. Arbeev's major research interests are related to three interconnected fields of biodemography, biostatistics and genetic epidemiology as pertains to research on aging. The focus of his research is on discovering genetic and non-genetic factors that can affect the process of aging and determine longevity and healthy lifespan. He is interested in both methodological advances in this research area as well as their practical applications to analyses of large-scale longitudinal studies with phenotypic, genetic and, recently, genomic information. Dr. Arbeev authored and co-authored more than 150 peer-reviewed publications in these areas.

Land

Kenneth C. Land

John Franklin Crowell Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Sociology

I received my Ph.D. in sociology and mathematics from the University of Texas at Austin in 1969. After a year of postdoctoral study in mathematical statistics at Columbia University in New York City, I taught there and was a member of the staff of the Russell Sage Foundation for three years. I then was successively a member of the faculties of the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign and the University of Texas at Austin before joining the Duke Sociology Department as Chairman in 1986. I served as Chair of Sociology from January 1986 to August 1997. My main research interests are contemporary social trends and quality-of-life measurement, social problems, demography, criminology, organizations, and mathematical and statistical models and methods for the study of social and demographic processes. I have done extensive research in each of these areas and have been elected a Fellow of the American Statistical Association (1978), the Sociological Research Association (1981), the American Association for the Advancement of Science (1992), the International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies (1997), and the American Society of Criminology (2004). I teach Contemporary Social Problems (SOCIOL 111), Advanced Methods of Demographic Analysis, and the Demography of Aging Proseminar (SOCIOL 750S). My other interests include tennis, jogging (10 kilometers), and music.


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