The shift to a more turbulent IB environment, and how MNEs respond to this shift

Abstract

Since the mid-2010s, multinational enterprises (MNEs) have operated in an increasingly turbulent international business (IB) environment characterized by geoplitical frictions, trade protectionism, intensified FDI screening, and assertive techno-nationalist industrial policies. These developments mark a shift from the efficiency-driven globalization of 1980–2016 toward strategies emphasizing supply chain resilience and local responsiveness. This paper contrasts the relative stability of the neoliberal era with today’s fragmented regulatory landscape, tracing the transition from multilateralism to renewed economic nationalism. It examines how evolving industrial policies affect MNEs from advanced and emerging economies. The paper identifies adaptive responses—including reconfiguring global value chains, increasing inventories, diversifying suppliers, engaging in non-market strategies, and enhancing digital transparency. It concludes by outlining alternative trajectories for globalization: a bifurcation into hegemon-led blocs or a revival of multilateral cooperation grounded in comparative advantage, knowledge diffusion, and the enduring mutual gains from cross-border investment.