DETERMINING THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE TO BOGUE BANKS, NC

Abstract

Over the next one hundred years climate change is expected to have far reaching impacts on coastal ecosystems, will influence the functioning of coastal processes, and affect the manmade infrastructure that has developed along the water. The four towns located on Bogue Banks, North Carolina are in a precarious position as the island’s topography is very close to the current sea level and they have a high amount of development. Due to a lack of clear guidelines, each town is currently approaching sea-level rise (SLR) based on its demographics and perceived risk, and consequently, none of the towns are fully addressing the effects that SLR will likely induce. By identifying the extent of SLR as well as policy areas that are lacking, this project is intended to act as a catalyst for the four communities on Bogue Banks to develop regulations and mitigation techniques that balance the environmental, economic and social implications of the available management strategies. To better understand the implications of SLR on Bogue Banks, a geographic information system was used to model the effects on both the ocean and sound sides of the island. Determining the areas that will be at risk on the island will yield a variety of information that will be extremely pertinent to town and county planners as they develop regulations that attempt to adapt to and mitigate the effects of SLR. Sea-level rise will have significant effects throughout Bogue Banks and each town will need to investigate and decide upon the best course of action based on local circumstances. The rapidly changing conditions along barrier islands and coastal areas will test the limits of existing rules and policy makers will have the substantial task of creating and modifying guidelines and regulations to govern how communities adapt to their new existence. In particular, policies pertaining to the issues of migrating wetlands, septic tank permitting, zoning of buildings, and transportation will likely need to be reconsidered if towns are going to successfully adapt to and mitigate the effects of higher sea levels.