Risk and Resilience of Pivers Island

Abstract

Pivers Island, home to the Duke University Marine Lab (DUML) and NOAA Beaufort, faces growing threats from storm surge, sea level rise, and coastal erosion. These challenges, compounded by Beaufort Inlet dredging, the erosion of the West end of Shackleford Banks, and the inland retreat of Rachel Carson Reserve, have increased the island's exposure to the Atlantic Ocean and flooding from sea level rise and storm surge. This project uses drone-derived LiDAR, GNSS surveying, and hydrodynamic modeling to assess vulnerabilities and simulate future flood risk scenarios in 3D. A digital twin of the island was created using LiDAR data collected by the Marine Robotics and Remote Sensing Lab. GNSS points collected at infrastructure sites were used to validate key infrastructure. An unstructured mesh of the area was generated so that the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model could simulate storm surge under different sea level rise scenarios (10, 50, and 100 years). These components were made so that risk assessments could be conducted on Pivers Island in 3D to give a comprehensive analysis on a small area. The project reveals that current infrastructure is already at risk under present-day storm surge, with future sea level rise increasing these threats. While ADCIRC provides valuable forecasts, its wetting-drying scheme has limitations in low-relief coastal zones. A multi-model approach incorporating XBeach and Delft3D is recommended for continued risk and resilience planning work. Results are intended to inform long-term planning by DUML and NOAA. Visualizations produced from the digital twin can support decision-making and public engagement. This project emphasizes the need for rapid coastal adaptation in research and conservation hubs like Pivers Island.