Coral Restoration Initiative - Advancing Conservation Through Data-Driven Strategies

Abstract

Mission: Iconic Reefs is the largest coral restoration initiative in the United States, aiming to restore ecological function to key reef sites across the Florida Keys. Restoration practitioners track progress by the number of corals outplanted, while managers monitor coral percent cover. However, there are currently no standardized methods to relate these two metrics. We address this gap by developing Bayesian hierarchical models to predict coral cover dynamics under varying heat stress and outplanting scenarios. Our models integrate three biological processes: (1) coral growth, (2) colony recruitment, and (3) mortality, while accounting for species and individual-level variability. This Bayesian approach fully quantifies uncertainty, offering a flexible framework for forecasting coral cover. These models allow us to simulate future coral cover trajectories under different climate and outplanting scenarios, offering a predictive tool to support adaptive reef management across a range of restoration settings.