Incidence of Acute Myocardial Infarction in Northern Tanzania: A Modeling Approach Within a Prospective Observational Study.

Abstract

Background Rigorous incidence data for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in sub-Saharan Africa are lacking. Consequently, modeling studies based on limited data have suggested that the burden of AMI and AMI-associated mortality in sub-Saharan Africa is lower than in other world regions. Methods and Results We estimated the incidence of AMI in northern Tanzania in 2019 by integrating data from a prospective surveillance study (681 participants) and a community survey of healthcare-seeking behavior (718 participants). In the surveillance study, adults presenting to an emergency department with chest pain or shortness of breath were screened for AMI with ECG and troponin testing. AMI was defined by the Fourth Universal Definition of AMI criteria. Mortality was assessed 30 days following enrollment via in-person or telephone interviews. In the cluster-based community survey, adults in northern Tanzania were asked where they would present for chest pain or shortness of breath. Multipliers were applied to account for AMI cases that would have been missed by our surveillance methods. The estimated annual incidence of AMI was 172 (207 among men and 139 among women) cases per 100 000 people. The age-standardized annual incidence was 211 (263 among men and 170 among women) per 100 000 people. The estimated annual incidence of AMI-associated mortality was 87 deaths per 100 000 people, and the age-standardized annual incidence was 102 deaths per 100 000 people. Conclusions The incidence of AMI and AMI-associated mortality in northern Tanzania is much higher than previously estimated and similar to that observed in high-income countries.

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Citation

Published Version (Please cite this version)

10.1161/jaha.121.021004

Publication Info

Hertz, Julian T, Deng B Madut, Matthew P Rubach, Gwamaka William, John A Crump, Sophie W Galson, Venance P Maro, Gerald S Bloomfield, et al. (2021). Incidence of Acute Myocardial Infarction in Northern Tanzania: A Modeling Approach Within a Prospective Observational Study. Journal of the American Heart Association, 10(15). p. e021004. 10.1161/jaha.121.021004 Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/24042.

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Scholars@Duke

Madut

Deng Madut

Assistant Professor of Medicine

I am an infectious diseases doctor who specializes in the care of patients with general infectious diseases, including persons living with HIV. My research is focused on improving the diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases among populations living in low-resource settings.

Rubach

Matthew P. Rubach

Associate Professor of Medicine
Galson

Sophie Wolfe Galson

Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine

Dr. Galson graduated from Mount Sinai School of Medicine and completed her residency in Emergency Medicine at the University of Arizona. She has always had a love for global health and has worked in India, Madagascar and Tanzania during her medical training. She completed the Global Health Emergency Medicine Fellowship in 2018.  
Dr. Galson's research is focused on non-communicable diseases in the emergency department and linkage to care in Moshi, Tanzania. She is interested in the intersection of public health and emergency care and hopes to promote the development of emergency medicine globally. Additionally, she loves to teach and instructs both residents and medical students in the classroom and clinically in the emergency department.  She joined Duke Emergency Medicine as faculty after the completion of her fellowship.

Bloomfield

Gerald Bloomfield

Associate Professor of Medicine

Gerald Bloomfield, MD, MPH, joined the faculty in Medicine and Global Health after completing his Cardiovascular Medicine fellowship training at Duke University Medical Center and Duke Clinical Research Institute. Bloomfield also completed the Duke Global Health Residency/Fellowship Pathway and a Fogarty International Clinical Research Fellowship. He received his medical education, internal medicine residency and Master of Public Health degree from Johns Hopkins University. Bloomfield leads a longstanding research and capacity building program on cardiovascular global health which includes work in under-resourced communities in the US and a number of low- and middle-income country settings including a partnership with Moi University in Eldoret, Kenya.

Limkakeng

Alexander Tan Limkakeng

Professor of Emergency Medicine

Dr. Alexander T. Limkakeng, Jr., MD, MHSc, FACEP is a Professor of Emergency Medicine, Vice Chair of Clinical Research, Director of the Acute Care Research Team, and Director of the Resident Research Fellowship for the Department of Emergency Medicine in the Duke University School of Medicine in Durham, North Carolina.

 

Dr. Limkakeng has served as chair of the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) Research Committee, and been the Course Director of the ACEP Research Forum from 2016-2018, the largest emergency medical research platform in the nation. He is also the Assistant Director of ACEP’s Emergency Medicine Basic Research Skills course. He was elected to the Nominating Committee of the Society of Academic Emergency Medicine.

 

As a researcher, Dr. Limkakeng has led multiple clinical trials and interdepartmental sponsored projects and is author on over 100 peer-reviewed manuscripts. These include studies in emergency conditions such as COVID-19, traumatic brain injury, hypertension, heart failure, thrombosis, stroke, envenomations, and septic shock. His research has been funded by grants totaling over $5 million dollars. He has lectured internationally on acute coronary syndrome, responsible conduct of research, design of clinical trials, and precision medicine in emergency care.  He has led Duke’s involvement in NIH-funded research networks and industry-funded work that led to FDA approval for multiple high-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays. He now serves as Co-PI for the Duke U24 Hub in the NIH Early Phase Pain Investigation Clinical Network (EPPIC-Net) (1U24NS114416) and a co-PI on the Duke U24 Hub award (1U24NS129498) in the NIH Strategies to Innovate Emergency Care Clinical Trials (SIREN) Network.


His personal research interest is finding new ways to diagnose acute coronary syndrome. In particular, he is interested in novel biomarkers and precision medicine approaches to this problem. The common element throughout this work is a focus on time-sensitive health conditions.

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