Characterizing European Dependence on Russian Natural Gas

Russia's war in Ukraine in 2022 has put a new spotlight on Europe's overall reliance on Russian energy resources. As the subsequent international sanctions and Russia's weaponization of energy have caused an energy crisis in Europe, we attempt to characterize Europe's reliance on Russian gas from a new standpoint. In this study, we used energy trade data from the IEA and an energy balance model to study whether European countries are dependent on Russian gas through imports from third countries. We discovered that this indirect reliance is not represented in IEA's reports, and that for certain countries, accounting for indirect imports can sometimes double its overall reliance on Russian gas, while other countries, who do not import any gas from Russia directly, can be reliant for over 40 % of their gas supply on indirect Russian imports. Accounting for these values should be of strategic importance to countries prioritizing their energy security, as well as those that are embarking on major energy transition projects.