Explaining Ambiguity in Alliance: A Patron-Client Screening Perspective

Abstract

In the inter-state security relations, security support ties often vary in commitment clarity, but the mechanism of such variation remains underexplained. Thus, my puzzle is what makes patrons facing similar strategic incentives choose different levels of ambiguity, the commitment clarity/strength that is usually represented by conditional and hedging language in security treaties. Using directed security relationship data, I test hypotheses about how the patron’s screening ability and the factors that influence the availability/efficiency of screening shape ambiguous treaty design. The results indicate that weaker screening capacity and greater informational frictions are associated with more ambiguous commitments. Several control variables were also examined, including the regime type of patrons and the number of options they have when they choose among potential clients. As expected, the findings are consistent with classic arguments.