Nil Points, Douze Points, and Everything In Between: An Analysis of Political Voting Bias in the Eurovision Song Contest

Abstract

Most viewers assume voting in the Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) is politically motivated, but few empirical studies have addressed political voting bias. If these claims have any validity then Eurovision voting results would provide meaningful insight into European public opinion and the degree of assimilation amongst contest participants. This study examines political voting bias by estimating what predicts votes from participating countries across voting systems using data from 1989 – 2012, as well as numerous song, performance, and country variables. The findings suggest voting is politically biased, although song popularity is significant and predictive of voting behavior. The results further indicate that contest participants form into smaller regional voting blocs and are statistically likely to vote for their neighbors. This study supports the claims of political voting and that Eurovision voting patterns are meaningful indicators of public opinion and inter-regional relations.