Preliminary Marine Spatial Planning to Support Potential Aquaculture Development in the U.S. Caribbean Islands

Abstract

The United States relies on imported seafood despite possessing one of the world’s largest Exclusive Economic Zones, highlighting the need for expanded domestic aquaculture. This study conducts a preliminary marine spatial planning (MSP) analysis to evaluate the potential for aquaculture development in the U.S. Caribbean Islands. Three objectives were addressed: (1) assessing spatial data availability and identifying gaps, (2) mapping constraints to aquaculture development within waters 0–200 m deep, and (3) evaluating oceanographic suitability near St. Croix using current speed and wave height thresholds. Spatial datasets were compiled and analyzed using GIS-based hexagonal grid modeling to classify constrained and unconstrained areas across subregions. Results indicate that approximately 1.9 million acres meet depth criteria, of which about 50% remain unconstrained after accounting for natural resource protections, navigation, and national security uses. Natural resource constraints, particularly coral habitats and marine protected areas, represent the dominant limitation. While St. Croix exhibits high spatial constraint and fragmentation, Puerto Rico and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands contain larger contiguous suitable areas. A preliminary metocean analysis shows that most unconstrained areas around St. Croix meet thresholds for current speed (≤1 m/s) and wave height (≤2.5 m), suggesting general oceanographic suitability. These findings demonstrate that, despite ecological and spatial limitations, opportunities exist for aquaculture development in the U.S. Caribbean, particularly in Puerto Rico and the northern Virgin Islands. Future MSP efforts should address data gaps, incorporate stakeholder input, and refine suitability modeling to support sustainable and community-centered aquaculture expansion.