Evaluating Partisan Gerrymandering in Wisconsin
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2017-09-07
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Abstract
We examine the extent of gerrymandering for the 2010 General Assembly district map of Wisconsin. We find that there is substantial variability in the election outcome depending on what maps are used. We also found robust evidence that the district maps are highly gerrymandered and that this gerrymandering likely altered the partisan make up of the Wisconsin General Assembly in some elections. Compared to the distribution of possible redistricting plans for the General Assembly, Wisconsin's chosen plan is an outlier in that it yields results that are highly skewed to the Republicans when the statewide proportion of Democratic votes comprises more than 50-52% of the overall vote (with the precise threshold depending on the election considered). Wisconsin's plan acts to preserve the Republican majority by providing extra Republican seats even when the Democratic vote increases into the range when the balance of power would shift for the vast majority of redistricting plans.
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Scholars@Duke
Jonathan Christopher Mattingly
Jonathan Christopher Mattingly grew up in Charlotte, NC where he attended Irwin Ave elementary and Charlotte Country Day. He graduated from the NC School of Science and Mathematics and received a BS is Applied Mathematics with a concentration in physics from Yale University. After two years abroad with a year spent at ENS Lyon studying nonlinear and statistical physics on a Rotary Fellowship, he returned to the US to attend Princeton University where he obtained a PhD in Applied and Computational Mathematics in 1998. After 4 years as a Szego assistant professor at Stanford University and a year as a member of the IAS in Princeton, he moved to Duke in 2003. He is currently a Professor of Mathematics and of Statistical Science.
His expertise is in the longtime behavior of stochastic system including randomly forced fluid dynamics, turbulence, stochastic algorithms used in molecular dynamics and Bayesian sampling, and stochasticity in biochemical networks.
Since 2013 he has also been working to understand and quantify gerrymandering and its interaction of a region's geopolitical landscape. This has lead him to testify in a number of court cases including in North Carolina, which led to the NC congressional and both NC legislative maps being deemed unconstitutional and replaced for the 2020 elections.
He is the recipient of a Sloan Fellowship and a PECASE CAREER award. He is also a fellow of the IMS and the AMS. He was awarded the Defender of Freedom award by Common Cause for his work on Quantifying Gerrymandering.
Gregory Joseph Herschlag
I am interested in studying techniques to understand fairness in redistricting. I am also interested in computational fluid dynamics and high-performance computing.
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