An Agent Based Model to Assess Malaria Transmission Drivers in the Ecuadorian Amazon

Abstract

Through intensive malaria control initiatives, Ecuador almost eradicated malaria. Recent data shows that between 2015 and 2018 malaria cases quadrupled in indigenous communities in the Amazon region bordering the Peruvian Amazon, with trends similar to the increased incidence in Peruvian indigenous communities. Studies show that malaria transmission is spatial, and infections occur in high transmission areas where hosts and vectors move through geographical barriers. A series of agent-based models were developed to assess the drivers of malaria transmission in six Achuar indigenous communities. The models are then used to test the effectiveness of a malaria control intervention using bed nets. To understand movement behavior this study surveyed 48 Achuar households in 2019 and compared it to data from 63 households from 2016. As expected, the agent-based simulations show that malaria incidence is influenced by local-scale human movement and bed net interventions have an effect in decreasing malaria risk.