The ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history) stroke risk score: a biomarker-based risk score for predicting stroke in atrial fibrillation.
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2016-05
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Abstract
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Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of stroke, which is currently estimated by clinical characteristics. The cardiac biomarkers N-terminal fragment B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and cardiac troponin high-sensitivity (cTn-hs) are independently associated with risk of stroke in AF. Our objective was to develop and validate a new biomarker-based risk score to improve prognostication of stroke in patients with AF.Methods and results
A new risk score was developed and internally validated in 14 701 patients with AF and biomarkers levels determined at baseline, median follow-up of 1.9 years. Biomarkers and clinical variables significantly contributing to predicting stroke or systemic embolism were assessed by Cox-regression and each variable obtained a weight proportional to the model coefficients. External validation was performed in 1400 patients with AF, median follow-up of 3.4 years. The most important predictors were prior stroke/transient ischaemic attack, NT-proBNP, cTn-hs, and age, which were included in the ABC (Age, Biomarkers, Clinical history) stroke risk score. The ABC-stroke score was well calibrated and yielded higher c-indices than the widely used CHA2DS2-VASc score in both the derivation cohort (0.68 vs. 0.62, P < 0.001) and the external validation cohort (0.66 vs. 0.58, P < 0.001). Moreover, the ABC-stroke score consistently provided higher c-indices in several important subgroups.Conclusion
A novel biomarker-based risk score for predicting stroke in AF was successfully developed and internally validated in a large cohort of patients with AF and further externally validated in an independent AF cohort. The ABC-stroke score performed better than the presently used clinically based risk score and may provide improved decision support in AF.Clinicaltrials gov identifier
NCT00412984, NCT00799903.Type
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Hijazi, Ziad, Johan Lindbäck, John H Alexander, Michael Hanna, Claes Held, Elaine M Hylek, Renato D Lopes, Jonas Oldgren, et al. (2016). The ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history) stroke risk score: a biomarker-based risk score for predicting stroke in atrial fibrillation. European heart journal, 37(20). pp. 1582–1590. 10.1093/eurheartj/ehw054 Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/22869.
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John Hunter Peel Alexander
John H. Alexander, MD, MHS is a cardiologist and Professor of Medicine in the Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology at Duke University School of Medicine, as well as the Vice Chief, Clinical Research in the Division of Cardiology. He is the Director of Cardiovascular Research at the Duke Clinical Research Institute where he oversees a large group of clinical research faculty and a broad portfolio of cardiovascular clinical trials and observational clinical research programs. He is a member of the American Society of Clinical Investigation.
Dr. Alexander’s clinical interests are in acute and general cardiovascular disease, valvular heart disease, and echocardiology. His research is focused on the translation of novel therapeutic concepts into clinical data through clinical trials, specifically on the therapeutics of acute coronary syndromes, chronic coronary artery disease, and cardiac surgery and on novel methodological approaches to clinical trials. He was on the Executive Committee of the ARISTOTLE trial of apixaban in patients with atrial fibrillation and was the Principal Investigator of the APPRAISE-2 trial of apixaban in patients with acute coronary syndromes.
Dr. Alexander has published extensively and has served as the principal investigator of numerous multicenter clinical trials. He currently serves as the co-chair of the Clinical Trial Transformation Initiative (CTTI).
Renato Delascio Lopes
Atrial Fibrillation
Antithrombotic Therapy in patients with Acute Coronary Syndromes
Elderly patients with Heart Disease
Biomarkers in Acute Coronary Syndromes and Atrial Fibrillation
Thrombosis and Anticoagulation and novel antithrombotic agents
Metabolomics in Cardiovascular Medicine
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