Quantifying how Drought and Increases in Water Demand may Impact Municipal Water Supplies for Durham, North Carolina

Abstract

In 2007, North Carolina experienced its worst drought in the past 112 years of record. North Carolina has also seen a steady increase in population growth with the Triangle area acting as one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in the country. With a prevalence for extreme drought coupled with a growing demand for water, city water managers are left with the dilemma of how to best plan for future water needs. An important part of the water planning process is to assess the level of risk for running out of water during the different seasons of the year. This project performed a quantitative risk assessment to measure how water supplies may respond to increasing water demands in the future. This was done by creating a hydrologic model which used historic climate and water use data along with future water demand projections to identify how water shortage risks may change over time for the City of Durham’s water supplies.