Browsing by Author "Visser, Marjolein"
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Item Open Access Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration: individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies.(European heart journal, 2019-02) Pennells, Lisa; Kaptoge, Stephen; Wood, Angela; Sweeting, Mike; Zhao, Xiaohui; White, Ian; Burgess, Stephen; Willeit, Peter; Bolton, Thomas; Moons, Karel GM; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Selmer, Randi; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Assmann, Gerd; Amouyel, Philippe; Salomaa, Veikko; Kivimaki, Mika; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Blaha, Michael J; Kuller, Lewis H; Brenner, Hermann; Gillum, Richard F; Meisinger, Christa; Ford, Ian; Knuiman, Matthew W; Rosengren, Annika; Lawlor, Debbie A; Völzke, Henry; Cooper, Cyrus; Marín Ibañez, Alejandro; Casiglia, Edoardo; Kauhanen, Jussi; Cooper, Jackie A; Rodriguez, Beatriz; Sundström, Johan; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Dankner, Rachel; Nietert, Paul J; Davidson, Karina W; Wallace, Robert B; Blazer, Dan G; Björkelund, Cecilia; Donfrancesco, Chiara; Krumholz, Harlan M; Nissinen, Aulikki; Davis, Barry R; Coady, Sean; Whincup, Peter H; Jørgensen, Torben; Ducimetiere, Pierre; Trevisan, Maurizio; Engström, Gunnar; Crespo, Carlos J; Meade, Tom W; Visser, Marjolein; Kromhout, Daan; Kiechl, Stefan; Daimon, Makoto; Price, Jackie F; Gómez de la Cámara, Agustin; Wouter Jukema, J; Lamarche, Benoît; Onat, Altan; Simons, Leon A; Kavousi, Maryam; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Gallacher, John; Dekker, Jacqueline M; Arima, Hisatomi; Shara, Nawar; Tipping, Robert W; Roussel, Ronan; Brunner, Eric J; Koenig, Wolfgang; Sakurai, Masaru; Pavlovic, Jelena; Gansevoort, Ron T; Nagel, Dorothea; Goldbourt, Uri; Barr, Elizabeth LM; Palmieri, Luigi; Njølstad, Inger; Sato, Shinichi; Monique Verschuren, WM; Varghese, Cherian V; Graham, Ian; Onuma, Oyere; Greenland, Philip; Woodward, Mark; Ezzati, Majid; Psaty, Bruce M; Sattar, Naveed; Jackson, Rod; Ridker, Paul M; Cook, Nancy R; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Thompson, Simon G; Danesh, John; Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Emerging Risk Factors CollaborationAIMS:There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after 'recalibration', a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied. METHODS AND RESULTS:Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at 'high' 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29-39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22-24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44-51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37-39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms. CONCLUSION:Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.Item Open Access Walking in old age and development of metabolic syndrome: the health, aging, and body composition study.(Metab Syndr Relat Disord, 2010-08) Peterson, Matthew J; Morey, Miriam C; Giuliani, Carol; Pieper, Carl F; Evenson, Kelly R; Mercer, Vicki; Visser, Marjolein; Brach, Jennifer S; Kritchevsky, Stephen B; Goodpaster, Bret H; Rubin, Susan; Satterfield, Suzanne; Simonsick, Eleanor M; Health ABC StudyBACKGROUND: The specific health benefits of meeting physical activity guidelines are unclear in older adults. We examined the association between meeting, not meeting, or change in status of meeting physical activity guidelines through walking and the 5-year incidence of metabolic syndrome in older adults. METHODS: A total of 1,863 Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study participants aged 70-79 were followed for 5 years (1997-1998 to 2002-2003). Four walking groups were created based on self-report during years 1 and 6: Sustained low (Year 1, <150 min/week, and year 6, <150 min/week), decreased (year 1, >150 min/week, and year 6, <150 min/week), increased (year 1, <150 min/week, and year 6, >150 min/week), and sustained high (year 1, >150 min/week, and year 6, >150 min/week). Based on the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) panel guidelines, the metabolic syndrome criterion was having three of five factors: Large waist circumference, elevated blood pressure, triglycerides, blood glucose, and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) levels. RESULTS: Compared to the sustained low group, the sustained high group had a 39% reduction in odds of incident metabolic syndrome [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.61; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.40-0.93], and a significantly lower likelihood of developing the number of metabolic syndrome risk factors that the sustained low group developed over 5 years (beta = -0.16, P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Meeting or exceeding the physical activity guidelines via walking significantly reduced the odds of incident metabolic syndrome and onset of new metabolic syndrome components in older adults. This protective association was found only in individuals who sustained high levels of walking for physical activity.