Browsing by Subject "Commerce"

Now showing 1 - 8 of 8

Open Access
Associations of Alcohol and Tobacco Retail Outlet Rates with Neighborhood Disadvantage.
(International journal of environmental research and public health, 2022-01-20) Wheeler, David C; Boyle, Joseph; Barsell, D Jeremy; Glasgow, Trevin; McClernon, F Joseph; Oliver, Jason A; Fuemmeler, Bernard F
Tobacco causes 29% of cancer-related deaths while alcohol causes 5.5% of cancer-related deaths. Reducing the consumption of these cancer-causing products is a special priority area for the National Cancer Institute. While many factors are linked to tobacco and alcohol use, the placement and density of retail outlets within neighborhoods may be one community-level risk factor contributing to greater use of these products. To elucidate associations between tobacco, alcohol, and tobacco and alcohol retail outlets (TRO, ARO, and TARO) and neighborhood disadvantage over a large geographic area, we employed a novel Bayesian index modeling approach to estimate a neighborhood disadvantage index (NDI) and its associations with rates of the three types of retailers across block groups in the state of North Carolina. We used a novel extension of the Bayesian index model to include a shared component for the spatial pattern common to all three types of outlets and NDI effects that varied by outlet type. The shared component identifies areas that are elevated in risk for all outlets. The results showed significant positive associations between neighborhood disadvantage and TROs (relative risk (RR) = 1.12, 95% credible interval (CI = 1.09, 1.14)) and AROs (RR = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.11, 1.17), but the association was greatest for TAROs (RR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.18, 1.24). The most important variables in the NDI were percent renters (i.e., low home ownership), percent of homes built before 1940 (i.e., old housing stock), and percent without a high school diploma (i.e., low education).
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Gold mining in the Peruvian Amazon: global prices, deforestation, and mercury imports.
(PLoS One, 2011-04-19) Swenson, Jennifer J; Carter, Catherine E; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Delgado, Cesar I
Many factors such as poverty, ineffective institutions and environmental regulations may prevent developing countries from managing how natural resources are extracted to meet a strong market demand. Extraction for some resources has reached such proportions that evidence is measurable from space. We present recent evidence of the global demand for a single commodity and the ecosystem destruction resulting from commodity extraction, recorded by satellites for one of the most biodiverse areas of the world. We find that since 2003, recent mining deforestation in Madre de Dios, Peru is increasing nonlinearly alongside a constant annual rate of increase in international gold price (∼18%/yr). We detect that the new pattern of mining deforestation (1915 ha/year, 2006-2009) is outpacing that of nearby settlement deforestation. We show that gold price is linked with exponential increases in Peruvian national mercury imports over time (R(2) = 0.93, p = 0.04, 2003-2009). Given the past rates of increase we predict that mercury imports may more than double for 2011 (∼500 t/year). Virtually all of Peru's mercury imports are used in artisanal gold mining. Much of the mining increase is unregulated/artisanal in nature, lacking environmental impact analysis or miner education. As a result, large quantities of mercury are being released into the atmosphere, sediments and waterways. Other developing countries endowed with gold deposits are likely experiencing similar environmental destruction in response to recent record high gold prices. The increasing availability of satellite imagery ought to evoke further studies linking economic variables with land use and cover changes on the ground.
Open Access
Illicit cigarette consumption and government revenue loss in Indonesia.
(Global Health, 2014-11-19) Ahsan, Abdillah; Wiyono, Nur Hadi; Setyonaluri, Diahhadi; Denniston, Ryan; So, Anthony D
BACKGROUND: Illicit cigarettes comprise more than 11% of tobacco consumption and 17% of consumption in low- and middle-income countries. Illicit cigarettes, defined as those that evade taxes, lower consumer prices, threaten national tobacco control efforts, and reduce excise tax collection. METHODS: This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette consumption within Indonesia using two methods: the discrepancies between legal cigarette sales and domestic consumption estimated from surveys, and discrepancies between imports recorded by Indonesia and exports recorded by trade partners. Smuggling plays a minor role in the availability of illicit cigarettes because Indonesians predominantly consume kreteks, which are primarily manufactured in Indonesia. RESULTS: Looking at the period from 1995 to 2013, illicit cigarettes first emerged in 2004. When no respondent under-reporting is assumed, illicit consumption makes up 17% of the domestic market in 2004, 9% in 2007, 11% in 2011, and 8% in 2013. Discrepancies in the trade data indicate that Indonesia was a recipient of smuggled cigarettes for each year between 1995 and 2012. The value of this illicit trade ranges from less than $1 million to nearly $50 million annually. Singapore, China, and Vietnam together accounted for nearly two-thirds of trade discrepancies over the period. Tax losses due to illicit consumption amount to between Rp 4.1 and 9.3 trillion rupiah, 4% to 13% of tobacco excise revenue, in 2011 and 2013. CONCLUSIONS: Due to the predominance of kretek consumption in Indonesia and Indonesia's status as the predominant producer of kreteks, illicit domestic production is likely the most important source for illicit cigarettes, and initiatives targeted to combat this illicit production carry the promise of the greatest potential impact.
Open Access
Returns to R&D on new drug introductions in the 1980s.
(J Health Econ, 1994-12) Grabowski, HG; Vernon, JM
This study finds that the mean IRR for 1980-84 U.S. new drug introductions is 11.1%, and the mean NPV is 22 million (1990 dollars). The distribution of returns is highly skewed. The results are robust to plausible changes in the baseline assumptions. Our work is also compared with a 1993 study by the OTA. Despite some important differences in assumptions, both studies imply that returns for the average NCE are within one percentage point of the industry's cost of capital. This is much less than what is typically observed in analyses based on accounting data.
Open Access
Should the patent system for new medicines be abolished?
(Clin Pharmacol Ther, 2007-11) DiMasi, JA; Grabowski, HG
Open Access
Spatially Varying Associations of Neighborhood Disadvantage with Alcohol and Tobacco Retail Outlet Rates.
(International journal of environmental research and public health, 2022-04-26) Wheeler, David C; Boyle, Joseph; Barsell, D Jeremy; Glasgow, Trevin; McClernon, F Joseph; Oliver, Jason A; Fuemmeler, Bernard F
More than 30% of cancer related deaths are related to tobacco or alcohol use. Controlling and restricting access to these cancer-causing products, especially in communities where there is a high prevalence of other cancer risk factors, has the potential to improve population health and reduce the risk of specific cancers associated with these substances in more vulnerable population subgroups. One policy-driven method of reducing access to these cancer-causing substances is to regulate where these products are sold through the placement and density of businesses selling tobacco and alcohol. Previous work has found significant positive associations between tobacco, alcohol, and tobacco and alcohol retail outlets (TRO, ARO, TARO) and a neighborhood disadvantage index (NDI) using Bayesian shared component index modeling, where NDI associations differed across outlet types and relative risks varied by population density (e.g., rural, suburban, urban). In this paper, we used a novel Bayesian index model with spatially varying effects to explore spatial nonstationarity in NDI effects for TROs, AROs, and TAROs across census tracts in North Carolina. The results revealed substantial variation in NDI effects that varied by outlet type. However, all outlet types had strong positive effects in one coastal area. The most important variables in the NDI were percent renters, Black racial segregation, and the percentage of homes built before 1940. Overall, more disadvantaged areas experienced a greater neighborhood burden of outlets selling one or both of alcohol and tobacco.
Open Access
The Association of Gasoline Prices With Hospital Utilization and Costs for Motorcycle and Nonmotorcycle Motor Vehicle Injuries in the United States.
(Medical care, 2016-09) Zhu, He; Wilson, Fernando A; Stimpson, Jim P; Araz, Ozgur M; Kim, Jungyoon; Chen, Baojiang; Wu, Li-Tzy
This study examined the association between gasoline prices and hospitalizations for motorcycle and nonmotorcycle motor vehicle crash (MVC) injuries.Data on inpatient hospitalizations were obtained from the 2001 to 2010 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Panel feasible generalized least squares models were used to estimate the effects of monthly inflation-adjusted gasoline prices on hospitalization rates for MVC injuries and to predict the impact of increasing gasoline taxes.On the basis of the available data, a $1.00 increase in the gasoline tax was associated with an estimated 8348 fewer annual hospitalizations for nonmotorcycle MVC injuries, and reduced hospital costs by $143 million. However, the increase in the gasoline tax was also associated with an estimated 3574 more annual hospitalizations for motorcycle crash injuries, and extended hospital costs by $73 million.This analysis of some existing data suggest that the increased utilization and costs of hospitalization from motorcycle crash injuries associated with an increase in the price of gasoline are likely to substantially offset reductions in nonmotorcycle MVC injuries. A policy decision to increase the gasoline tax could improve traffic safety if the increased tax is paired with public health interventions to improve motorcycle safety.
Open Access
The empirical analysis of cigarette tax avoidance and illicit trade in Vietnam, 1998-2010.
(PLoS One, 2014) Nguyen, Minh Thac; Denniston, Ryan; Nguyen, Hien Thi Thu; Hoang, Tuan Anh; Ross, Hana; So, Anthony D
Illicit trade carries the potential to magnify existing tobacco-related health care costs through increased availability of untaxed and inexpensive cigarettes. What is known with respect to the magnitude of illicit trade for Vietnam is produced primarily by the industry, and methodologies are typically opaque. Independent assessment of the illicit cigarette trade in Vietnam is vital to tobacco control policy. This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade for Vietnam between 1998 and 2010 using two methods, discrepancies between legitimate domestic cigarette sales and domestic tobacco consumption estimated from surveys, and trade discrepancies as recorded by Vietnam and trade partners. The results indicate that Vietnam likely experienced net smuggling in during the period studied. With the inclusion of adjustments for survey respondent under-reporting, inward illicit trade likely occurred in three of the four years for which surveys were available. Discrepancies in trade records indicate that the value of smuggled cigarettes into Vietnam ranges from $100 million to $300 million between 2000 and 2010 and that these cigarettes primarily originate in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Malaysia, and Australia. Notable differences in trends over time exist between the two methods, but by comparison, the industry estimates consistently place the magnitude of illicit trade at the upper bounds of what this study shows. The unavailability of annual, survey-based estimates of consumption may obscure the true, annual trend over time. Second, as surveys changed over time, estimates relying on them may be inconsistent with one another. Finally, these two methods measure different components of illicit trade, specifically consumption of illicit cigarettes regardless of origin and smuggling of cigarettes into a particular market. However, absent a gold standard, comparisons of different approaches to illicit trade measurement serve efforts to refine and improve measurement approaches and estimates.