Browsing by Subject "ethanol"
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Item Unknown Economic Value of Cellulosic Ethanol: Analysis of Advanced Biofuels from Energy Cane in South Florida(2010-04-29T18:42:50Z) Tullos Anderson, JadaThis study presents a pro forma cash flow analysis of a cellulosic ethanol production facility in Florida, as well as insight about potential air quality impacts of cellulosic ethanol production and use. The economic analysis is based on a real company, Vercipia, which will produce cellulosic ethanol biochemically from a hybrid of sugarcane known as “energy cane”. Overall, the project as modeled is economically beneficial to the economy, governments and company given the assumptions made. Compared to conventional gasoline production and combustion, cellulosic ethanol will decrease greenhouse gas production; however, this benefit may be outweighed by production of air toxics. The impact of ethanol combustion on air toxic production must be determined before a more accurate conclusion of total benefits can be made.Item Unknown Evaluating the Economics of Ethanol(2008-12-05T18:29:07Z) Bean, PatrickThe ethanol industry has experienced explosive growth in the past several years due to concerns about oil dependence and climate change. However, sentiment has begun to shift against corn ethanol due to increasing food costs, dwindling profit margins and increased government expenditures propping up the industry. Despite the record increase in gasoline prices, ethanol has struggled with its own rising costs of production and market turmoil. This Masters Project assesses the economics of corn-based ethanol production in the United States through the development of three models. The Ethanol Supply Curve Model constructs an ethanol supply curve based on user defined commodity prices. The model compares the marginal cost of ethanol production to the wholesale price of gasoline in order to determine the ability of ethanol to compete with gasoline in the transportation fuel market. The Ethanol Profit Model solves for a facility’s profit margin under user defined commodity conditions. The Ethanol Variable Subsidy Model calculates the price-contingent subsidy required for ethanol to compete with gasoline on a price basis. A reference case is developed using commodity prices from U.S. government forecasts for 2008. Additionally, several sensitivity analyses are completed to provide insight about the potential health of the ethanol industry under different conditions. The results from the reference case indicate the ethanol industry is facing a treacherous production environment. The reference case scenario finds profit margins of $-0.1116/gallon for dry-mill ethanol producers, and $0.0498/gallon for wet-mill producers. Ethanol producers face the risk of bankruptcy, consolidation and failure to meet government production mandates if the current conditions persist. In the reference case, ethanol producers require a 33% increase in the ethanol subsidy from $0.51/gallon to $0.6796/gallon in order to break-even with gasoline prices. The Ethanol Supply Curve Model also shows that the market currently values ethanol on a gasoline-energy equivalent basis rather than a volumetric basis. Model instructions and computer code are included in the report.Item Unknown Expanding the Life Cycle Analysis Boundaries for Corn-based Ethanol to Include Land-Use Change: Implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions(2007-08-27T13:59:13Z) Bolcar, KathleenCurrent life cycle analyses of corn-based ethanol assume that CO2 fluxes from soils are negligible. This paper asks if it is necessary to include this flux for corn grown on lands previously enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program. The analysis shows that CO2 fluxes from soils is indeed an important variable to consider when determining the overall impact of corn-based ethanol on greenhouse gas emissions.