Evaluation of Air Conditioning Replacement Programs in Mexico: Energy, Economic and Environmental Impacts

The current report provides an overview of the Mexican electricity sector in order to frame the context in which energy efficiency national policies and strategies are developed. This report then focuses on one specific energy efficiency strategy: residential air conditioner (AC) replacement programs. A spreadsheet model was developed and presented as the core tool for analyzing the three most relevant air conditioner substitution programs in Mexico (FIPATERM ASI, FIDE PFAEE 2002-2006, and PNSEE). It then, provides a sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis for the PNSEE replacement program to provide insight on the main variables affecting the results of the program. The model estimates energy savings, CO2 emissions avoided and the economic impact to the user and to the utility.

Together, the FIPATERM and FIDE PFAEE 2002-2006 programs are estimated to result in 2,371 GWh saved and 1.4 million tons of CO2 avoided. Projected results from the PNSEE program are 4,710 GWh saved and 2.8 million tons of CO2 reduced by 2021. This is equal to average annual savings of 482 GWh or 0.45% of annual residential electricity consumption in 2008. Further, these results were found to be sensitive to the increase in the new units cooling capacity compared to the capacity of the replaced units. Electricity rates and costs define the distribution of economic benefits to the user and the utility. Improvements to the program rules, better information of AC stock, and improved transparency when reporting replacement actions, are some of the final recommendations for enhancing air conditioner replacement programs benefits.