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Evaluating Partisan Gerrymandering in Wisconsin

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Date
2017-09-07
Authors
Ravier, R
Mattingly, J
Herschlag, GJ
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Abstract
We examine the extent of gerrymandering for the 2010 General Assembly district map of Wisconsin. We find that there is substantial variability in the election outcome depending on what maps are used. We also found robust evidence that the district maps are highly gerrymandered and that this gerrymandering likely altered the partisan make up of the Wisconsin General Assembly in some elections. Compared to the distribution of possible redistricting plans for the General Assembly, Wisconsin's chosen plan is an outlier in that it yields results that are highly skewed to the Republicans when the statewide proportion of Democratic votes comprises more than 50-52% of the overall vote (with the precise threshold depending on the election considered). Wisconsin's plan acts to preserve the Republican majority by providing extra Republican seats even when the Democratic vote increases into the range when the balance of power would shift for the vast majority of redistricting plans.
Type
Journal article
Subject
stat.AP
stat.AP
physics.soc-ph
97A40, 91F10, 65C05
Permalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/15452
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Scholars@Duke

Herschlag

Gregory Joseph Herschlag

Associate Research Professor of Mathematics
I am interested in studying techniques to understand fairness in redistricting.  I am also interested in computational fluid dynamics and high-performance computing.
Mattingly

Jonathan Christopher Mattingly

Kimberly J. Jenkins Distinguished University Professor of New Technologies
Jonathan Christopher  Mattingly grew up in Charlotte, NC where he attended Irwin Ave elementary and Charlotte Country Day.  He graduated from the NC School of Science and Mathematics and received a BS is Applied Mathematics with a concentration in physics from Yale University. After two years abroad with a year spent at ENS Lyon studying nonlinear and statistical physics on a Rotary Fellowship, he returned to the US to attend Princeton University where he obtained a PhD in Applied and
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