Analyzing Energy Outlooks: Focusing on North America and the United States of America
Abstract
There are broad ranges of organizations that produce energy forecasts for different
purposes. The U.S. Department of Energy produces an International Energy Outlook through
their Energy Information Administration (EIA), whose objective is to provide facts
for public policy decisions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) produces a World
Energy Outlook to ensure their members maintain energy security and have research
to achieve clean, cheap and affordable energy sources. Furthermore, various public
companies produce outlooks, such as BP and ExxonMobil, which both do so in an effort
to promote discussion around energy issues.
Assumptions made about policy, technology, economic development, and demographics
strongly affect the different models used in each survey. The objectives of analyzing
these outlooks together are to determine how and where they differ, and to explain
these differences quantitatively and qualitatively.
The most influencing factor, for all the energy types, was the scenario assumption,
namely policy and technology assumptions. Projections that differ the most, or were
most similar, can be generally explained by understanding the policy and technology
assumptions behind each survey. The EIA provides projections for consumption in production
for the status quo, in regards to policy and technology innovation. The IEA used policies
that were announced and implements them cautiously. They also take into account foreseeable
technology advances. BP and ExxonMobil incorporate the most likely or most practical
policy and technology advances in their projections.
Evaluating the differences and the goals of each forecast will allow for a non-biased,
well-rounded understanding and discussion of energy projections from these different
organizations. Each organization believes it is important to continue the discussion
of energy markets world-wide. Each outlook has differences that impede discussion,
thus this study suggests a standardization of energy forecasts in order to not only
enable discussion, but also truly expand discussion from not just people in the know,
but to the common folk.
Type
Master's projectSubject
North AmericaUnited States
EIA International Energy Outlook
IEA World Energy Outlook
BP
ExxonMobil
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https://hdl.handle.net/10161/5311Citation
Molinari, Terrence (2012). Analyzing Energy Outlooks: Focusing on North America and the United States of America.
Master's project, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/5311.Collections
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